Kenya at the crossroads
By Karen Allen
BBC News, Nairobi
Newly-elected lawmakers are due to take their seats in the Kenyan parliament.
Raila Odinga's opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has the majority
of seats - but it is far from clear whether it will take them or dash for the
seats on the government benches.
That uncertainty is the result of the wave of fury that has swept Kenya since
the presidential election on 27 December.
The straw that broke the camel's back was the perception by many Kenyans and
the international community that the election was rigged.
Yet could the election fiasco merely have been a trigger to ignite simmering
tensions, bubbling under the surface for decades?
The level of displacement and killings in the past few weeks has been
unprecedented. More than 500 people have lost their lives and 250,000 have been
forced to flee their homes.
Kenya is in a mess, yet half the country still backs the 76-year-old
President Mwai Kibaki.
Many privately hope the tensions will simply fizzle out but the country has
been plunged into a deep crisis.
Gladwell Otieno, formerly of Transparency International, who now runs her own
governance think tank, summarises the outpouring of anger.
"It's about resources, it's about land, it's about tribe, it's about so many
issues that successive governments have not addressed," she says.
At 62 Raila, as he is widely referred to, is not the picture of youth he
might like to portray. But nevertheless he has become an icon of change and a
beacon of hope for young Kenyans.
In a country riven by ethnic divisions, young Kikuyus may have felt alienated
by Mr Odinga, who comes from the Luo community. But they are furious that their
name is being usurped by a president whose legitimacy is in serious doubt.
Underpinning the crisis that Kenya now faces are economic factors. The
country has enjoyed up to 7% economic growth in recent years, but the benefits
have only been felt by a few.
The perception by many is that the fruits of economic growth have been
squirreled away by a small corrupt elite within the president's community.
In extreme cases people have pinned the blame on the entire Kikuyu business
community.
But others from Kenya's patchwork of ethnic groups have also found themselves
singled out for retribution because of their entrepreneurship or choice of
location for their home.
Talk of economic-inspired violence in Kenya and it is impossible to ignore
the issue of land.
Land stands as a symbol for so many cleavages across Kenya. "It's our
national hang-up," sighs Gladwell Otieno.
Successive Kenyan governments have failed to address land issues. "It's what
the Mau Mau went to war about," she explains in a reference to the Kikuyu-led
rebellion against British colonial rule.
Drive through the Kenyan countryside and it is like a topographical "Who's
Who".
But as one Kenyan friend told me: "Land isn't just real estate, it is
cultural identity."
It's about resources, it's about land, it's about tribe, it's about so many
issues that successive governments have not addressed (Gladwell Otieno Africa
Centre for Open Governance)
Nowhere is this more clearly seen than in Rift Valley. In the villages around
Eldoret, houses have been torched because the people working the land do not
have blood ties to the land.
So what is the future for this country so proud of its green bean exports,
its tourism, and its gorgeous beach resorts?
Political fatigue among ordinary Kenyans who simply want to carry on with
their lives may mean that the anger dissipates and the semblance of normality
resumes.
But if the two sides in this political standoff fail to give any ground and
rallies planned for later in the week do go ahead, some fear a period of
austerity lies ahead.
That could plunge Kenya back to the dark days of Mr Moi.
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