Hi Andi et al. The UCR of course comes from the FBI's accumulation of police reports, and thus will vary naturally due to sampling, as well as manipulation of data at the various sites. However, it is pretty stable across time. I would like to see the raw numbers, rather than the percent change.
I just checked the FBI's website, and the murder rate for 2005 is estimated to be up 2.1% comparing the first six months of 2005 with the first six months of 2004. http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2005prelim/2005openpage.htm Table 3 Percent Change for Consecutive Years Years Violent crime Murder Forcible rape 2002/2001 -1.7 +2.3 +1.8 2003/2002 -3.1 +1.1 -4.0 2004/2003 -2.0 -5.7 +1.4 2005/2004 -0.5 +2.1 -4.7 Looking at the data, the rate went up for two years, then dropped a lot, and then went up a little. But assuming as a base, 10,000 murders per year as a base, we might suggest: 2001/2000 10000 2002/2001 10230 2003/2002 10343 2004/2003 9753 2005/2004 9958 If my approach is correct, then I would generally conclude that there has been no change in the murder rate over the past four or five years. Regarding your original insight, I don't think your alternative data source is accurate (e.g. the rate is way up), unless the authors are including murders of Americans abroad, or possibly the loss of hundreds of American lives in Iraq. Peace to all Robert Robert J. Hironimus-Wendt, Ph.D. Sociology and Anthropology Western Illinois University 1 University Circle Macomb, IL 61455-1390 phone: (309) 298-1081 fax: (309) 298-1857 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people you can, as long as ever you can." -- John Wesley
