Amsterdam opts for Municipal Fibre...

MG

-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: November 5, 2005 11:24 AM
To: ip@v2.listbox.com
Subject: [IP] Amsterdam's Fiber to the Home Project and implications

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Robert J. Berger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: November 5, 2005 1:01:28 AM EST
To: Dave Farber <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Dewayne Hendricks  
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Amsterdam's Fiber to the Home Project and implications

EuroTelco Blog
http://eurotelcoblog.blogspot.com/2005/11/and-answer-is.html

<snip>

Frequent readers of this blog will no doubt recall the frequency with
which I have referred to the proposed Citynet
(http://www.citynet.nl/) FTTP project in Amsterdam. Well the embargo is
now lifted, so I can reveal that Phase 1 has been formally proposed (to
be debated and voted on by the City Council later this month), and the
funding structure has been finalized.

The City of Amsterdam is to be a 1/3 shareholder, with a consortium of
five housing companies (also 1/3) and other unnamed investors (1/3). I'm
curious to know who the other unnamed investors are. My guess is someone
with a long-term view of investing and a preference for long-term
predictability of returns. We are talking about a 20 - 30 year horizon
here, so my gut feeling is that insurance companies are involved
somehow.

Phase 1 consists of 40k premises, roughly 10% of Amsterdam, to begin in
early 2006. Infrastructure build is to be carried out by Van den Berg
and Draka Comteq, and bbned will be the wholesale network operator.

This is intriguing, in that bbned is Telecom Italia. I expect there may
be some interesting phone calls to KPN investor relations this
afternoon. KPN was on the list of parties in the tender process (see the
page entitled "oproep" in the Citynet site), but the company never
publicly highlighted this fact.

These neutral network projects are not without historical precedents,
but what I find so compelling here is that the city's priorities are
spelled out so clearly:


       "This enables our city to compete with other European
       cities. The fiber network delivers to Amsterdam an innovative
       and freely accessible infrastructure, suitable to support growth
       in demand for the next 30 years or more. In this way we ensure a
       wide open marketplace for innovative service-providers and
       economic growth, as well as a fast track for the smarter and
       cheaper delivery of care, education and other public services."

Competing with other cities, yes, not just for the Olympics (hello
London!), but for economic activity, tax revenues, social and cultural
development (which attracts tourism and businesses). Smarter and cheaper
delivery of public services, yes, as was articulated to me on my recent
visit to Amsterdam. This stuff is too important to be left to gradualist
measures like Ethernet over cable or ADSL2+, or to a duopoly market
where investment and pricing decisions may be driven by shorter-term
considerations such as share price or strategic redeployment of capital.

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think the message is something
like:

It may be "your network" and "your investment" you are trying to defend,
but your customers are our taxpayers, our society, and we have a duty to
look beyond the next quarter and where our share options are at present.
Access to information is an essential building block of social
development, like access to water and electricity. Highly-contended DSL
products with bandwidth caps ain't gonna cut it.

This is powerful, challenging stuff, and I'm sure a lot of people in the
market are going to be unhappy and stamp their feet. My sense from
talking to politicians in Amsterdam was that political consensus is
strongly in favor, and the press release itself expresses a high degree
of confidence that Brussels will not consider this structure to be state
aid. Certainly, cases like Limousin would seem to lend support to this
view. I also sensed from my conversations with people in the local
market that a number of other Dutch cities have been watching closely
and drafting their own plans. Today is a green light to anyone with the
vision to shake things up, and I'm sure that won't be limited to the
Netherlands.

I think this is an incredibly significant event for European broadband,
and it's going to be fascinating to watch. How will traditionally
access-oriented service providers adapt to differentiate themselves
solely on price, user experience and customer care? For those who choose
to sit out or attempt to fight back, what are the options open to them?
What happens to pricing? (I have my ideas - remember I'm from the Deep
South.) Longer term, and undoubtedly most importantly, how will
Amsterdam be transformed? Neutral networks are a great leveller,
commercially and socially.


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