a major project that the Institute did for the UK government has now
gone public
http://www.deltascan.org
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Alex Pang" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: December 20, 2006 3:40:15 AM EST
To: "IFTF Staff" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: First article on the Delta Scan
From the Financial Times:
Vision of life in the middle of the century
By Clive Cookson, Science Editor
Published: December 20 2006 02:00 | Last updated: December 20 2006
02:00
Chinese astronauts walk on the moon, the world has splintered into
currency blocs after an international exchange rate shock, and even
robots have the vote.
It sounds like the exaggerated vision - utopian or distopian
according to taste - of a parlour futurologist. But these scenarios
of what life might be like around the middle of the century have
emerged from 270 rigorously researched papers commissioned by the
government that together purport to be the world's most extensive
look into the future.
The Horizon Scan covers a vast range of science and technology,
politics, economics and society - from internet crime to robotics,
banking to the computer-brain interface, stem cell research to
"grey power" in an ageing population.
And it is intended to do far more than feed a human curiosity about
what life may be like for our children or grandchildren. Sir David
King, the government's chief scientist, argues horizon scanning
will have a powerful influence on policy-making - and not only in
Whitehall. "Although it was designed as a tool for government, I
believe it will also have a broader use across the private sector,"
he adds. Horizon scanning has grown out of the 12-year-old
Foresight programme in the government's Office of Science and
Innovation, which produces in-depth studies of future developments
in specific areas such as infectious disease diagnosis and defences
against flooding.
Horizon scanning papers are individually quite brief but together
they cover the entire public policy spectrum. The exercise comes in
two parts. The Delta Scan, commissioned from the Institute for the
Future in California, covers science and technology.
The broader Sigma Scan also looks at social, political, economic
and environmental issues; it was carried out by a UK partnership of
Outsights, the management consultancy, and Ipsos Mori, the opinion
research organisation. Richard O'Brien of Outsights says: "In
developing the scans, we have started by referencing leading
authoritative sources of evidence on existing trends, but have also
drawn on a range of alternative material [including blogs, journals
and interviews with leading thinkers] that is also useful in
identifying the trends and issues that may emerge over the coming
years."
Sir David says: "The two scans look at what trends are developing,
what new issues may arise, and what events may surprise us - and
the possible implications for us individually and collectively.
They are not 'predicting' the future, rather setting out a broad
range of different possibilities and challenging assumptions."
Although the future is not predictable, "government can't just sit
back and wait for it to happen", he says. "Government has to
identify opportunities and risks at least five to 10 years ahead
when making policy. It can then make decisions that might move us
from an unfavourable to a favourable scenario."
While still in the development stage, the horizon scans have
already started to influence policy-making. They have, for example,
aided the Health and Safety Executive in planning for the future of
workplace health and safety, and the Treasury in writing its
report, "Opportunities and Challenges for the UK:analysis for the
2007 Comprehensive Spending Re-view", published last month.
Some private sector organisations such as Royal Dutch Shell, the
oil company, are known for their work on the future but they tend
to specialise in developing detailed scenarios rather than in
horizon scanning across the board, Sir David says.
The Horizon Scanning Centre in the Office of Science and Technology
will continue to refine the Sigma and Delta scans, incorporating
feedback from inside and outside government.
It has given a further development contract to the new partnership
of Outsights and Ipsos Mori with Imperial College London and Demos.
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