> > I don't know where you get your statistics on lung cancer, but they're off > base and misleading. According to the World Health Organization > (http://www.who.int/tobacco/research/cancer/en/): > > "Lung cancer - the big one" > As noted at the outset, the paper describing the association between tobacco > use and lung cancer stands as a classic in public health. On average, smokers > increase their risk of lung cancer between 5 and 10-fold and in developed > countries, smoking is responsible for upwards of 80% of all lung cancers. > Using American data, 24% of men who smoke can expect to developing cancer > during their expected life time. > > Lung cancer remains a disease with a dismal prognosis. Although one-year > all-stage survival is reported to have increased from 32% in 1973 to 41% in > 1994, five-year survival has remained unchanged at 14%. Early detection has > been promoted as a potentially valuable intervention but its > cost-effectiveness puts it beyond the reach of all but the most wealthy > health care systems, and even then, pales in comparison to the > cost-effectiveness of comprehensive programs and policies to reduce tobacco > consumption. > ---------- > > The 24% statistic quoted above is for all cancers (and there are many more > than just lung) associated with tobacco use. According to the National Cancer > Institute (statistics for 2005-2007), the lifetime risk (percent) of lung > cancer for all races and both sexes for all people (smokers and non-smokers) > is 6.95%. For perspective, the rate for all types of cancers is about 41%. > (BTW, as you get past the age of about 50, your roughly twice as likely to > die of cancer or heart disease than you are to die of Alzheimer's disease). > See > http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2007/results_single/sect_01_table.14_2pgs.pdf > for more details. >
I can't help but follow-up on these statistics with some back-of-the-envelope calculations. If we assume that smoking increases your lung cancer lifetime risk five-fold over non-smokers, and roughly 20% of Americans smoked in 2007 (see http://www.webmd.com/smoking-cessation/news/20081113/smoking-rate-is-declining-in-us), then the lung cancer lifetime risk is: Non-smokers = 3.9% Smokers = 19.3% If we assume that instead smoking increases your lung cancer lifetime risk ten-fold over non-smokers, then the lung cancer lifetime risk is: Non-smokers = 2.5% Smokers = 25% So the 24% quoted on the WHO page is actually probably just for lung cancer (since the overall lifetime risk of all cancers is about 41% for the whole population), and the rate for non-smokers is clearly higher than 1%. According to the EPA (http://www.epa.gov/radon/healthrisks.html), radon is indeed the leading cause of lung cancer among non-smokers, being responsible for about 21,000 deaths per year. By contrast, second-hand smoke, which so many more people worry about, is estimated to cause only 3,000 deaths per year among non-smokers. Second-hand smoke is of more concern to people with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, though. The synergistic effects of smoking and radon exposure have been noted and can also increase a person's lung cancer lifetime risk. Diana * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Diana R. Tomchick Associate Professor University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center Department of Biochemistry 5323 Harry Hines Blvd. Rm. ND10.214B Dallas, TX 75390-8816, U.S.A. Email: [email protected] 214-645-6383 (phone) 214-645-6353 (fax) ________________________________ UT Southwestern Medical Center The future of medicine, today. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Visit our website: http://texascavers.com To unsubscribe, e-mail: [email protected] For additional commands, e-mail: [email protected]
