Alex, I won't put my uneducated guess up against your semi-educated guess as there are a lot of ifs which are beyond our control. I believe that US industry can do almost anything if they want to but unlike at the beginning of WW 2 when the incentive was patriotism and saving our way of life, the incentive now is purely monetary. So, indeed the question may be not if they can but will they? The giant companies may make millions in charitable (tax deductible) contributions but will not spend the billions on refineries or renewable energy sources without an expectation (or guarantee) of long term profits.
If the refineries are truly operating at full capacity then what is first needed are more refineries. We could still be drilling for new production and storing it or if we have as much as is reported, selling it on the world market. But of course oil companies would have to know that oil would be the primary energy source for years to come to make the expenditure. I am not sure that the oil companies doing nothing and allowing the price of oil (gasoline) to steadily increase would be to their advantage. At some point, and it is beginning, the people will seek other means of transportation or ways of conducting their work without actually having to travel to and from. If and when gasoline exceeds a certain price that will vary for individuals, they will take drastic measures and we could see consumption decline which would affect oil company profits. The energy crisis is a tough nut to crack and I have yet to hear either presidential candidate propose any possible solution that makes any sense. Hey Alex, it is never too late. We just all suffer until it finally gets fixed. I don't know what if anything McCain and party can do to alleviate the pain at the pump and other equally important problems but Obama's socialistic ideas will only result in exacerbating them. I wish that we had better candidates from which to choose but my vote is with McCain and not with someone whom I see as radical and not knowledgeable enough for the job. I expect some liberal rebuttals from fellow cavers to which I may not respond as I am much too slow in my composition. I makes it up as I goes along. Fritz ________________________________ From: Alex Sproul [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2008 4:22 PM To: Fritz Holt Cc: [email protected] Subject: RE: [ot_caving] FW: Oil Drilling Petition to sign >Better late than never in responding to my posts of June 19 to Louise, ET AL. Well, I'll admit that I found that digest (for reasons unexplained) in my spam folder, but I'd swear it was from 29 June, not 19 June, or I would have left well enough alone... >I disagree with your assumption that we cannot "tip the balance" within >the next two decades or more. It's not so much that we *can't* but that we *won't* -- due to the aforementioned capitalist market forces requring a huge profit potential in order to move (which in this case would have to be a huge gov't giveaway). I'd rather see the incentives move the hedge fund crowd in the direction of renewable energy. Actually, I'd rather see a few companies do it because it's *the right thing to do* rather than require huge bribes. Exxon and BP can surely afford to be magnanimous. >My uneducated guess is that oil production companies could bring in >producing wells within a couple of years from the date that congress >passes the required legislation. No doubt they could, but then what? Our refining capacity is operating at full tilt now, and one good hurricane could cripple that by a third. >It would not surprise me if the major oil companies were able to have >additional oil refineries on line within five years if they were warranted >(meaning an adequate return on their investment). My semi-educated guess is that,given ample incentives, it would still take at least a decade to augment refining capacity. I've heard that said more than once by oil execs. And where would those incentives come from? The govt't would have to *buy* them for them, at a minimum, because they have no reason to move in that direction. Why spend your hard-earned exessive profits (or even free gov't $$) on more capacity to bring the price of gasoline down, when you can do nothing, keep the price going up, and make a lot more money? I'm not arguing that we should not exploit our petroleum resources as an expedient measure while we perfect renewable sources. I'm arguing that it's already too late, and our government is so broken, it couldn't fix this if it wanted to (which it doesn't yet). We could have made a big leap forward with the huge surplus we had in 1999 plus the 3 trillion we've sunk into the sands of the Middle East (to no apparent effect). Oh yeah; hey, that corresponds to when the capitalist warmongering Republicans took over. :^D (Sorry, Fritz, I had to zing ya!) I will agree, though, that the Republicans aren't conservative enough for most Republicans these days. And that's a good thing. We're long overdue for some bold moves. Alex -- Alex Sproul, NSS 8086 NSS IT Committee
