> Try telling a potential parent that Zika is something not to worry about and > see how far that argument gets you.
Perhaps we should tell people in Zika infected countries to not get pregnant? (Dons fireproof suit) ;-) Stefan Creaser Staff Design Engineer; Physical Design Group; ARM 5707 Southwest Parkway, Bldg 1, Suite 100, Austin, TX 78735, USA. Direct: +1-512-314-1012, Internal: 11012. Email: stefan.crea...@arm.com. Skype: stefan_creaser -----Original Message----- From: Texascavers [mailto:texascavers-boun...@texascavers.com] On Behalf Of Diana Tomchick via Texascavers Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2016 4:39 PM To: Cave Tex Subject: Re: [Texascavers] Zika > Microcephaly is seen in population in general, only about 1 in 100 mothers > infected with Zika are affected. For comparison, about 40k people die in > traffic accidents a year in brazil, 40K in US, 200K in India. Malaria kills 1 > million people a year. Yes, but not every virus causes problems with neural development in embryonic cell cultures. "Zika Virus Infects Human Cortical Neural Progenitors and Attenuates Their Growth” Tang, Hengli et al. Cell Stem Cell , Volume 18 , Issue 5 , 587 - 590 For a freely available description of this research, http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/zika-virus-kills-developing-brain-cells The very last sentence of this description sums up the problem rather well: "Researchers also still need to figure out how the virus crosses the placenta and infects the fetus directly, something most viruses can’t do.” If the population of Brazil is 205 million, and roughly half the population is female (~100 million), and of that only 50% is of childbearing age (50 million) and only 5% of that number plans to have a child this year (2.5 million), and 1% of that number has children born with microcephaly, that would be 25,000 children, if all the mothers were infected with Zika virus. Let that sink in: 25,000 children born with microcephaly. So let’s assume instead that only 25% of the potential mothers are infected with Zika virus and their babies have microcephaly. That would still mean 6,250 children born with microcephaly. 6,250 children born with so little neural tissue that they will never live independently, and probably will not live very long lives. According to the CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/birthdefects/microcephaly.html), "Microcephaly is not a common condition. State birth defects tracking systems have estimated that microcephaly ranges from 2 babies per 10,000 live births to about 12 babies per 10,000 live births in the Unites States.” That would be 0.02 - 0.12 % of live births in the U.S., a far smaller number than 1%. "Zika virus, named after a forest in Uganda where it was first isolated decades ago, usually causes only mild symptoms in people, including fever and rash. But after the virus started spreading across northeastern Brazil last year, doctors there noticed a striking increase in the number of babies born with microcephaly.” This is exactly what epidemiologists are supposed to do, alert the medical community to potential new health risks. Not all new viruses and pathogens are as terrifyingly dangerous as Ebola, nor as relatively ho-hum as Lone Star fever. One has a high risk of death and the other can be easily treated with antibiotics. Try telling a potential parent that Zika is something not to worry about and see how far that argument gets you. Diana ************************************************** Diana R. Tomchick Professor Departments of Biophysics and Biochemistry University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center 5323 Harry Hines Blvd. Rm. ND10.214A Dallas, TX 75390-8816 diana.tomch...@utsouthwestern.edu (214) 645-6383 (phone) (214) 645-6353 (fax) > On May 24, 2016, at 3:45 PM, texas cavers tc <texascavers@texascavers.com> > wrote: > > Just to provide a different perspective, only 1 in 5 even know have Zika > related illness when they are exposed. It's not 'spiraling out of control' - > it's new to North America, yes. It's likely one of many illnesses that go > through populations and become part of the infectious tapestry that we all > live in. Is anyone reading alarmist articles about Heartland virus or Lone > Star fever? > > Guillan-Barre syndrome is secondary to number of viruses, it's nothing > specific to Zika. > > Microcephaly is seen in population in general, only about 1 in 100 mothers > infected with Zika are affected. For comparison, about 40k people die in > traffic accidents a year in brazil, 40K in US, 200K in India. Malaria kills 1 > million people a year. > > RK > > See http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/305163.php > Symptoms of Zika virus > > Signs and symptoms of Zika virus are vague and can last for up to a week. > Diagnosis of the virus is typically confirmed with a blood test.1 > Symptoms of Zika virus include:1,2 > • Fever > • Rash > • Joint pain > • Conjunctivitis (red eyes) > • Muscle pain > • Headache > • Pain behind the eyes > • Vomiting. > According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), only 1 in 4 people > infected with Zika virus develop symptoms.5 In contrast, the CDC state the > figure is 1 in 5. > In the past, there have also been reports of patients developing > Guillain-Barré syndrome following a Zika virus infection. Guillain-Barré > syndrome is a rare but serious autoimmune disorder that affects the central > nervous system.6 > Infection with the Zika virus is rarely severe enough to warrant > hospitalization, and it is rarer still for an individual to die as a result.6 > > _______________________________________________ > Texascavers mailing list | http://texascavers.com > Texascavers@texascavers.com | Archives: > http://www.mail-archive.com/texascavers@texascavers.com/ > http://lists.texascavers.com/listinfo/texascavers ________________________________ UT Southwestern Medical Center The future of medicine, today. _______________________________________________ Texascavers mailing list | http://texascavers.com Texascavers@texascavers.com | Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/texascavers@texascavers.com/ http://lists.texascavers.com/listinfo/texascavers IMPORTANT NOTICE: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential and may also be privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to any other person, use it for any purpose, or store or copy the information in any medium. Thank you. _______________________________________________ Texascavers mailing list | http://texascavers.com Texascavers@texascavers.com | Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/texascavers@texascavers.com/ http://lists.texascavers.com/listinfo/texascavers
