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*"This would perhaps be the biggest ever experiment in the world to
distribute subsidised grain to achieve food and nutritional security."
"This" refers to the Food Security Bill, [FSB] the brainchild of the
National Advisory Council and widely expected to be the route to political
nirvana for UPA. *
*But pray who calls this grand design of distributing food grains to
approximately two-thirds of our population at subsidized prices an
"experiment?" The Opposition? No. The Media? Never. The Judiciary? Not at
all.*
*In fact, this is the view of the Ministry of Agriculture contained in The
Discussion Paper on National Food Security Bill and prepared by the
Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation.*
*That is not all. The document laments that "The Bill, in its present form,
throws up major operational and financial challenges and would have
enormous ramifications on the cereal economy/markets and therefore Indian
agriculture as a whole."*
*To appreciate the "enormous ramifications" mentioned above, its
consequences and implications on national grain markets a reference to the
food grains production as well as procurement and distribution by the
Government through the extant Public Distribution System [PDS] needs to be
appreciated.*
*Government as a hoarder
India produces approximately 250 MT of food grains annually. Of this
one-half i.e. 120 – 140 MT is estimated to be consumed by farmers and
theoretically does not enter the national grain markets. Of the balance
110-130 MT that enters the national grain markets, Government procures
approximately half of this for public distribution. The balance – a small
portion say 60 MT – enters our grain markets.*
*It is in this connection this document correctly points out that "The
government already procures one-third of the cereals production (which
amounts to almost half of marketed surplus of wheat and rice)." That makes
the Government a dominant player.*
*This has profound implications on food grains prices. As we have an
open-ended purchase policy, we continue to endlessly purchase over and
above our buffer stock requirements. For instance, as against the buffer
stock norm of 31.9 million tons of Rice & wheat (as on July 1 of each
year), total central stocks were at 80.5 million tons as at July 1, 2012.*
*Obviously the Government, thanks to its inefficiency, is unable to
distribute what it procures. In the process, little do we realise that this
is public hoarding by the Government. This in turn robs the common man of
grain stocks while artificially inflating its prices. This hoarding by the
state is at the root of the extant chronic food inflation and shortage in
India.*
*Food Security Bill simply seeks to amplify this.*
*Another dimension of the problem is that only a handful of States have
marketable surplus. That implies concentrated procurement. And this needs
to be distributed nationwide. It may be noted that 70 per cent of rice
procurement is done from Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Uttar
Pradesh while 80 per cent of wheat procurement is done from Punjab, Haryana
and Madhya Pradesh.*
*This is a logistic person's nightmare. For instance, moving wheat from
Punjab situated in one corner of the country through an archaic
transportation system and storage network mechanism into Kerala virtually
doubles its cost as it arrives in the point of consumption in Kerala.*
*Interestingly, the economic cost of FCI for acquiring, storing and
distributing food grains is about 40 per cent of the procurement price.
Obviously, Food Corporation of India must be a unique organisation that
suffers from diseconomies of scale! But who cares? The more it procures,
stores or distributes, the more it leaks.*
*In such a scenario, importing wheat, at times from international markets,
theoretically becomes a wiser proposition. But when a country like India
enters the international grain markets, (in view of her volumes) instantly
international prices spike, making imports practically a non-option. That
makes us extremely dependent on the national grain markets to feed our
gargantuan population.*
*Yet, what is galling is the fact that the National Sample Survey [NSS]
studies reveals massive leakage of food grains in the Targeted PDS
mechanism that aims to deliver food grains for BPL families. This is simply
because PDS has virtually collapsed in several states in India due to weak
governance and lack of accountability.*
*In fact, this document by the Ministry of Agriculture demonstrates the
dismal performance of this scheme for 2004-05 and 2009-10, the two years
for which NSS data on consumption from PDS are available.*
*In 2004-05, compared to an off-take of 29 million tonnes of rice and wheat
by States, only 13 tonnes were actually lifted by households for
consumption – suggesting a massive leakage of 54 per cent. In 2009-10, 25
million tonnes was received by the people under PDS while the off-take by
states was 42 million tonnes — indicating a leakage in excess of 40 per
cent.*
*Further, the FCI storage facilities are still primitive. For instance, the
FCI is facing an acute storage crisis with covered capacity estimated at
around 45 million tonnes and Covered and Plinth storage of 17 million
tonnes against the stocks crossing 80 million tonnes. This once again adds
to the wastage of grains while storing and handling.*
*Suicidal mission
There is a yet another piece of data that possibly is hidden from most
Indians. Most economists within the establishment have a skewed view of the
massive levels of malnutrition and food deprivation. Thus they assume we
have a distributional problem. In the process most policies laid out by the
Government aim to set right this issue when the challenge lies elsewhere.*
*The Economic Survey document for 2011-12 reveals that the average daily
per capita food grain consumption of an Indian in 1965 was 418 grams and
that of pulses, 62 grams. Remember, in 1965 we had a war with Pakistan on
top of a deadly drought.*
*Approximately after five decades of our 'successful' tryst with green
revolution, the survey shockingly points out that the average daily per
capita food grain consumption of an average Indian in 2010 was a meagre 407
grams and of pulses, a disappointing 32 grams.*
*It is in this connection it has to be noted the National Institute of
Nutrition is reported to have prescribed a minimum of 2,400 calories per
day per person. Significant sections of our population do not have access
to this minimal requirement. By the way, the average calorie intake
available to an inmate at the dreaded Guantanamo Bay daily is well in
excess of 4,000 calories.*
*Obviously, we are not producing enough food grains or pulses now when
compared to 1965 on a per capita level. Yet, for the past four decades or
so we have been under the mistaken belief that distribution, not
production, to be the key to the issue on hand. That explains why we
created a monstrous public distribution system in the first place.*
*Simply put, the Food Security Act is implementable only when we produce
food grains in excess of 350 MT. And in such a scenario with massive stocks
of food we do not require state intervention. And should we produce less
than 350 MT and seek an intervention of the state, it will be a futile
exercise.*
*Crucially, the PM and his economists within the Government assume that
this outlandish legislation will settle our production, distribution and
storage deficiencies in our farm sector.*
*But assuming that it can be done what is the cost? Crucially where is the
money? The document prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture states that the
total financial expenditure entailed will be around Rs 682,163 crores over
a three year period.*
*This works out to in excess of Rs 225,000 crore every year. Given this
massive sums of money required to administer this flight of fancy – the
Finance Minister of India has allotted a paltry sum of Rs 85,000 crore in
the Budget of 2013-14. And should the FM provide money for this food
subsidy, his promise to assiduously restructure the finance of the country
goes for a toss.*
*And even if the money is available [remember money can be printed, but not
paddy or wheat] how can it be a solution? To improve food security to our
people we need to produce more of food.*
*For decades socialist ideas was all about distributing poverty, not
wealth. Food security bill, consequently, is a repetition of our mistakes
of the Nehruvian era. Consequently, it is a by-product of dangerous
analysis, bad diagnosis and awful prognosis.*
*The net impact of this silly idea of FSB is that can ruin the farm sector
in India, deny food security and dynamite the food grain economics of the
nation. No wonder, the document concludes that the FSB's impact on the
economy may be adverse.*
*And is that what the UPA aiming at – destroying the farm sector too
completely before demitting office?*
*PS: My aged father tells me that ordinary cloth was rationed in the
mid-forties. But once the production of cloth increased, rationing stopped.
Likewise the solution to food shortage is to increase food production.
Reducing this to a distributional issue is absolutely foolish.*
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*Shared by K.Raman.
*

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