Very useful information. I shall share with my known groups/individuals. Thanks very much.
N R V NARAYANAN On Fri 3 Jul, 2020, 11:20 PM S Chander, <[email protected]> wrote: > [image: Shared with Public] > From Jonathan Smith, Yale University Epidemiologist: > "As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally > obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a > transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social > distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that > are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of > social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease > epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from > that peer review. > "Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and > unambiguous. > "First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means > even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue > to rise globally, nationa > [image: Shared with Public] > lly, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some > people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They > are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You > should. This is normal in chaos. But this is the normal epidemic > trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what > it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the > epidemic inevitably gets worse. > "This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for > which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with > great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the > community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing > with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as > people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t. > "Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least > temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon > when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While > social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically > increases your contacts with family members/very close friends. This small > and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease > transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is > only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, > playdates/playgrounds, etc.,) the epidemic isn’t much different than if > there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease > transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all > of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. > "You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual > unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at > risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming > geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak > over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the > infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands > with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We > as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no > one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease > transmission along that whole chain. > "In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social > distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies > working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. > It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one > quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public > health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I > promise. I promise. > "You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social > distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking > up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics > standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network > that undermines all of the work the community has done so far. > "Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be > overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of > individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is > unforgiving to choices outside the rules. > "My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting > ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in > the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are > doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just ‘cheat’ a > little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the > importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued > community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of > uncertainty." > — Jonathan Smith, Lecturer, > Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health, > Yale University School of Public Health > With thanks to Glenn Farrington, Todd Robbins and Don Stitt for putting it > out there. > (Jonathan Smith’s research focuses on infectious disease transmission > dynamics.) > > > With best wishes > > S Chander > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Thatha_Patty" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/thatha_patty/CAE5xeN9DozqXqjgt79sVT5Ab6S-3ARGEr87DoJFDv5gfT7Q-sA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/thatha_patty/CAE5xeN9DozqXqjgt79sVT5Ab6S-3ARGEr87DoJFDv5gfT7Q-sA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Thatha_Patty" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/thatha_patty/CAEW3Q%2BWmDV-qto7wt6YxQ0jYSU8OQuyDf19cJrHHxw%2B1hn1eZA%40mail.gmail.com.
