Trump How politicians defy Justice anywhere JJ or Trump
What Trump's conviction means for the election
Donald Trump claps as a crowd of supporters cheer behind him.
Donald Trump has campaigned on his claim he is being unfairly prosecuted
Donald Trump’s criminal conviction presents a remarkable collection of
historic firsts.
He’s the first former or serving US president to be found guilty of a
crime. {34 counts charges pronounced guilty Judgement in July 24} He’s the
first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon as well.
While Trump plans his appeal in the hush-money case, and awaits a sentence
on 11 July that could in theory include prison time and a hefty fine, it’s
not too early to consider the political fallout.
That will be difficult, however, given this has never happened before.
“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to
happen,” says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential
History at Southern Methodist University. “But there is nothing in the
record that comes even close to this.”
Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and
is scheduled to be crowned at the party's convention just days after his
sentencing.
Polls indicate he is in a statistical dead heat with President Joe Biden
and maintains a slight edge in many key swing states that will decide the
election. But those surveys also provide evidence that this conviction
might change all of that.
In exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries this winter,
double-digit numbers of voters said that they would not vote for the former
president if he were convicted of a felony.
An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of those backing Trump
would reconsider their support in such a situation.
Those were hypothetical convictions, however. And at the time he was facing
four criminal cases, including charges related to an alleged conspiracy to
overturn the result of the 2020 election and his handling of classified
documents once leaving the White House.
Now those voters can make their judgement based on a real conviction.
"The real verdict is going to be [on] 5 November, by the people," Trump
said, moments after leaving the courtroom.{Remember here of Yadav JJ MK
etc?)
Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton
and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, says American voters
may feel less strongly about the hush-money case by then because it relates
to events that took place eight years ago. (Reminds you Indian voters?}
“While it’s not a great thing to be convicted of a crime, what voters will
be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border,
competition with China and Russia and the money that is being spent on
Israel and Ukraine,” he said.
Banner saying 'Trump convicted'
'The air in the courtroom turned to stone'
Hush-money trial was Trump's to lose. Here’s why he did
Can Trump run for president as a convicted felon?
Even a slight drop in Trump’s support, however, might be enough to matter
in the kind of razor-thin race this presidential contest could become. If a
few thousand voters who would have otherwise backed the former president
stay home in a key state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it could make all
the difference.
“I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate,” says
Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group that
has sought to move the party away from Trump.
She says younger voters and those who are college-educated and live in the
suburbs have been concerned about Trump’s demeanour and his approach to
governing.
“Those voters are really hesitant to get back in line with the Republican
Party headed by Donald Trump,” she says. “The guilty verdict is going to
further shore up those concerns.”
But leading Republicans, many of whom attended the trial in a show of
loyalty to the party nominee, were quick to rally behind him.
House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a shameful day in American history.
"This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one."
For eight years, experts and opponents have been predicting Trump’s
impending political collapse, only to be proven wrong. His 2016
presidential campaign was punctuated by scandals that would have likely
felled a typical politician, including Trump’s recorded Access Hollywood
conversation about groping women that was referenced multiple times in this
trial.
Mr Trump’s party largely stuck with him through two impeachments and the
chaotic end of his presidency, during which the US Capitol was attacked by
a mob of his supporters.
All this did not prevent the former president from undertaking a political
revival that has put him in position to win back the White House in
November.
“It’s axiomatic at this point, but Trump’s continued support, despite the
kind of scandal that would have scuttled literally any other previous
candidate in American history, is truly astounding,” says Mr Engel.
This historic criminal conviction may prove to be different – particularly
if Trump’s appeals fail and he faces the prospect of prison.
Or it could just be the latest in a long series of seemingly disruptive
events that, in hindsight, have only been bumps on Trump’s path to power.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has constructed a
political model that has successfully predicted the winner of every
presidential race since 1984. He concedes, however, that Trump’s criminal
conviction could be the kind of “cataclysmic and unprecedented” twist that
throws the model for a loop and changes the course of history.
“History books will record this as a truly extraordinary, unprecedented
event, but a lot will depend on what happens afterwards,” he says.
The ultimate judgement on the importance of Trump’s conviction will come at
the hands of voters in November. If the former president is defeated, his
guilty verdict is likely to be viewed as one of the reasons why.
If he wins, it may become just a footnote to Trump’s tumultuous yet
consequential political career.
“History is written by the winners, as we all know,” Mr Engel says.
K Rajaram IRS 1624
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