I kind of agree with Raven here. I think the movie will have a great opening, maybe closer to $60M but it will then die off quickly. The only legs it will have is the nerdcore/geekcore getting seconds and thirds, but even then, this will deteriorate. I see HUGE bank in the DVD release and they will do the typical and release like 10 versions over the next 10 years so just be ready to buy it again. and again. and again.
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 2:03 AM, <[email protected]> wrote: > So...it's a bad example, since it had a much lower budget and more > potential for profit. Watchmen may make the same box office numbers as > Daredevil, but it won't make as high a profit. I'm glad thinking about > Daredevil helped you find some research, but you must now concede it is > against your point! You're as blind as old Matt Murdock himself! > > It's like saying traffic cones are like oranges. They're both similar in > color, but there's no vitamin c in a pylon, shag! There's no vitamin c in a > pylon! > > Hellboy II is probably a better example. Like, there's a movie that did > fair to middlin based on a tiny core fanbase. Mom and dad didn't come out > to see it. In your link-guy's analysis, it was only made due to the fierce > will of the director, but he doesn't mention the truth! It was made because > Pan's Labyrinth was so huge. It was almost advertised as a sequel to PL > more than Hellboy. > > All of these movies that did well had some kind of popular momentum leading > up to them, mostly hot Spider-Man movies. 300 had a GREAT marketing > campaign (and looked like nothing else). Those commercials and posters were > everywhere. Some of the movies have star power and legs, like Iron Man's big > deal was that it stuck around. It had week after week of big box because of > good word of mouth. It was fun and cool. Most of these movies had big > openings and dropped. > > What does Watchmen have going for it? There's no star, there's no star > dying just before the movie (what luck that was!), there's no character > anyone's heard of, there's no catch-phrase in the marketing campaign, > there's no unique look. The preview is just ok. Kind of confusing and > looks like a "gritty" music video. > > It's "momentum" comes from nerds hailing it as the work that gives comics > "literary merit," and, WB hopes, from Dark Knight doing so well. But I > don't think the Batman crowd are into it. Like, moms and dads and high > school kids haven't been dressing up as Rorshach for Halloween for seventy > years. > > The GN is selling huge, and that is hard to discount, but I think many of > the people who bought the GN do not like it and don't see what the big deal > is. I think the movie will confuse and disappoint and won't have legs or > word of mouth. The open will be decent, $45? Less? and then it will drop > off. Maybe it will do better overseas, since they are into "art" over > there, but ma and pa Olive Garden are going to dislike it. I think the > enthusiasm of comics people is driving normals away! > > Maybe I am not taking the power of Wil Wheaton's killer review into > account. > > So, Shag and I are of the same opinion, he just chose a weak example at > first. > > > -----Original Message-----From: Shag <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Sent: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 9:06 pm > > Subject: [The Unique Geek] Re: Watchmen movie acceptance - Speculation > > > > I think Daredevil is still a good example. It grossed $179 million, $101 of > > which was profit. That's pretty good. However, it certainly didn't do > > nearly as well as other comic book properties... > > > Dark Knight - $997 million gross; $812 million profit > > Spider-Man 3 - $890 million gross; $632 million profit > > Spider-Man - $821 million gross; $682 million profit > > Spider-Man 2 - $783 million gross; $583 million profit > > Iron Man - $571 million gross; $431 million profit > > Fantastic Four - $330 million gross; $230 million profit > > > Even Ghost Rider made $220 million and that was CRAP! > > > Hellboy II is an interesting example. I think it's fair to say that Hellboy > > II had more advertising/merchandise out there than Watchmen does right now. > > > Hellboy II - $99 million gross; $14 million profit margin > > > So between the Daredevil and Hellboy II examples, I think Watchmen will be > > lucky to make the same $179 million that Daredevil did. Also, rumor is that > > Watchmen cost over $100 million to make. And how much will Warner Brothers > > have to pay Fox when it's all said and done? > > > > Here is a link for some more data on Superhero movie revenues. > http://max-bro.net/2008/09/09/what-are-the-most-profitable-superhero-movie-f > > ranchises/ > > > > The Irredeemable Shag > http://onceuponageek.com > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected] > <[email protected]?>] > > On Behalf Of Cary Preston > > Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 3:42 PM > > To: [email protected] > > Subject: [The Unique Geek] Re: Watchmen movie acceptance - Speculation > > > > Raven was right- Daredevil grossed $179,179,718 worldwide, over $100 > > million domestically. That's eye popping for such a sub-par movie. > > > > > > ------------------------------ > *A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy > steps!<http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1218822736x1201267884/aol?redir=http:%2F%2Fwww.freecreditreport.com%2Fpm%2Fdefault.aspx%3Fsc%3D668072%26hmpgID%3D62%26bcd%3DfebemailfooterNO62> > * > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Unique Geek" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/theuniquegeek?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
