Thanks for your detailed report. We have seen similiar problems before, but 
with much larger change files. It seems this can happen also with smaller 
change files. The problem is indeed the `INSERT INTO osm2pgsql_changed_ways 
...` query. For some reason PostgreSQL chooses a really bad plan for this 
rather simple query and the query then takes forever. Maybe this is related to 
the PostgreSQL version or something else we have not understood yet, because 
this works perfectly well in other cases. (Which also means that generally 
minutely updates do work fine, the change files are small and updates are fast.)

Apart from the PostgreSQL version, I can see two things that are "special" in 
your setup that could affect this: The setting for `default_statistics_target` 
is much higher than the default, generally this should *improve* the planner 
results, but who knows. The other thing is that you are only using DACH data 
and not the planet. In DACH the data is much "denser" than the average for the 
planet, so maybe this has something to do with it.

The idle `COPY` command should hopefully not affect this. But you could try 
osm2pgsql 2.0.0 where this issue is fixed and the COPY command is closed much 
earlier.

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