Recently, I signed on to do some research for my college. At present I am 
analyzing existing data and will move on to a more thorough examination of 
various factors. My first findings were interesting enough that I thought to 
pass them along to TIPS.
Sierra uses the Nelson Denny Reading Test as an assessment tool. The data I 
was given was for Reading Assessment Scores from the Fall of 1997 and the 
course performance through 1999. The scores were compared to the performance 
on approximately 6,000 courses. The correlation beween assessment scores and 
performance was around +.85 which is impressive. However, consider this: the 
range of scores on the assessment was from 2-35. Students scoring from 30-35 
completed (grade of C or better) 77% of their courses. but students scoring 
from 5-10 passed about 50% of their classes. I would maintain that using 
this assessment test as a screening for students is inappropriate. My idea 
is to give the counselors a tool. I did a simple linear regression and got 
95% confidence interval estimates of the range of completion for each score. 
I would like to provide these to our counselors who could then inform 
students who took the test what their score meant in terms of likelhood of 
passing the class. A student who got a 10, for example, would have a 50% 
chance of passing with a range of 25 to 75%. The student could then decide 
whether to take the class. Comments?

By the way the courses sample were history, psychology, business and 
philosophy.




Harry Avis PhD
Sierra College
Rocklin, CA 95677
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Life is opinion - Marcus Aurelius
There is nothing that is good or bad, but that thinking makes it so     - 
Shakespeare


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