A p-value is only meaningful if the null hypothesis is true.  Replication is
only  meaningful if the null is false.  I would be interested in the
reference to calculating the probability of replication given p.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Martin J. Bourgeois [mailto:MartyB@;uwyo.edu]
> Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2002 1:30 PM
> To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences
> Subject: RE: p is continuous, not dichotomous
>
>
> Maybe I should quit before I get too far behind, but what I'm trying to
> say (and apparently failing) is that an observed difference between
> means is more likely to be replicated when the p is .001 than when the p
> is .1. You can certainly calculate the probability of replicating a
> result with a given p value, and results with smaller p's are more
> likely to be replicated (yes, it has been supported by data). I'll dig
> up a reference when a get a chance.


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