I said, in reference to the commonplace claim that we're experiencing an "epidemic of obesity":
> Then how come, between 1970 and 2000, "[US] National vital > statistics data indicate that the age-adjusted mortality from > coronary heart disease declined 58%...while age-adjusted mortality > from stroke declined 61.5%...during the same period. These trends > have been reported among men and women, and blacks and whites". Chris Green suggested that the decline may be due to improved methods for treating both disorders, with the result that while fewer die, more linger on in a severely-disabled state. A worthy speculation, but not a happy thought. And I thought I was bringing good news. But my interest in posting was to jog people's perceptions, not to identify the cause of the decline. For example, without citing my stats, try this multiple-choice question out on friends, family, and colleagues: ************************** We've all heard of the "epidemic of obesity" that afflicts modern society, and the hazards it presents for health. In the light of this concern, how has the rate of people dying of heart disease changed over the past 30 years? a) increased by 60% b) increased by 30% c) no change d) decreased by 30% e) decreased by 60% ********************************* How many people do you think will choose (e) [the correct answer]? As for speculations on the cause of the decrease in mortality, I agree that there have been medical advances which keep people alive who otherwise would have bought the farm. But I'm hard-pressed to believe that these advances are so widely applied and so extraordinarily effective that they not only slow our otherwise inexorable rush to alimentary suicide but actually reverse it by 60%. Also, the study I cited in my last post (Ergin et al, AMJ 2004) reported that the decline between their two cohorts (1971-82 vs 82- 92) was in incidence of cardiovascular disease (21% lower) as well as in mortality (31% lower). So there doesn't appear to be evidence for the living-death hypothesis. Not only do fewer people die, but there's less disease around. As Annette just said, perhaps that's because people are taking better care of themselves (prevention). Yes, but doesn't that contradict the claim that we're instead eating ourselves into an early grave? On the other hand, prophet of doom Jean-Marc could well be correct that the full effect of the epidemic lies in the future. Yes, but I think that most believe it's already here. (Personally, I prefer mortality statistics, not because of my death instinct, but because they're reliable. Death is so final, and death due to cardiovascular disease is a statistic we can have confidence in; diagnosing disease in the living less so.) Stephen _________________________________________________ Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. tel: (819) 822-9600 ext 2470 Department of Psychology fax: (819) 822-9661 Bishop's University e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Lennoxville, QC J1M 1Z7 Canada Dept web page at http://www.ubishops.ca/ccc/div/soc/psy TIPS discussion list for psychology teachers at http://faculty.frostburg.edu/psyc/southerly/tips/index.htm _______________________________________________ --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
