Stan - Depends. What is the 4 in 4 x 4 x 4 to represent? Seems to me that there is a .25 chance (1/4) for each one to pick each tire. That yields a .25 x .25 x .25 = 0.015625 or 1.5625% chance of innocence. But is that really correct. I think the actual number of events is really more complicated that it might seem. I'm assuming that anyone in college taking a test has some experience with flat tires on their car. So one way to approach it would require a Bayesian knowldege of the history of those individuals (to know what bias would seed their choices- for me it is passenger side front hands down!). I know, for example, that the overall rate of flats is higher on some tires than others (drivers side vs passenger, front vs rear, etc.). That's why they tell us to rotate the tires is to even out the wear etc. Course, who actually does that on our busy schedules. I think you could work out any number of possible senarios but all of them would mean that the three aren't very likely to guess correctly. Their only "chance" of passing were anyone dumb enough to do this is to have worked their response out in advance. It is still a humorous idea even though I bet this is urban myth. Kind of like the "graduate student proctoring an exam and sees a student cheating. She waits till the student is finished and begins to turn in their answer sheet (blue book, etc- depends on the version). She tells the student to keep their sheet as she has seen them cheating. The student looks bemused for a moment then says, 'Do you know who I am?' After a heated exchange the grad student says, 'No I don't and it doesn't matter.' At which point the student puts their paper in the stack, throws the papers into the air and exits the room." These are all cute and funny but probably never happened anyway. :) Tim Shearon, Albertson College of Idaho, Caldwell, ID
-----Original Message----- From: Stanley Cohen [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wed 12/1/2004 1:35 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences Cc: Subject: RE: Final Exam John, I calculate an even higher "chance rate." There 4x4x4=64 events in the outcome space. In four of the events (assume tires labeled 1,2,3,4)--(1,1,1), (2,2,2),(3,3,3),(4,4,4)--the jury finds them innocent. Thus 4/64=.0625. Is my logic gone astray somewhere? Best, Stan >>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<< "If you're going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill Stanley H. Cohen, PhD Professor & Interim Associate Chair Faculty Senate Chair, 2002-2003 Department of Psychology West Virginia University 1220 Life Sciences Building Morgantown, WV 26506-6040 E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.as.wvu.edu/psyc/Faculty/SCohen/index.htm Tel. No.: 304-293-2001x31641 Fax: 304-293-6606 >>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<< >>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 12/1/2004 10:42:36 AM >>> Of course, there is a non-trivial probability of choosing the same tire by chance. Nearly 16 times out of 1000 (from ¼ * ¼ * ¼) lying students would all agree on the same tire. Scenes we'd like to see: The jury finds you INNOCENT, p = .016 J ============================================ John W. Kulig Professor of Psychology Plymouth State College Plymouth NH 03264 ============================================ -----Original Message----- From: Gary Klatsky [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 01, 2004 9:37 AM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences Subject: FW: Final Exam A cute parable for this time of year Gary J. Klatsky, Ph. D.Director, Human Computer Interaction M.A. Program Department of Psychology [EMAIL PROTECTED] State University (SUNY) http://www.oswego.edu/~klatsky7060 State Hwy 104W Voice: (315) 312-3474Oswego, NY 13126 Fax: (315) 312-6330 All of us who are concerned for peace and triumph of reason and justice must be keenly aware how small an influence reason and honest good will exert upon events in the political field. Albert Einstein At Duke University, there were four sophomores taking Chemistry and all of them had an 'A' so far. These four friends were so confident that the weekend before finals, they decided to visit some friends and have a big party. They had a great time, but after all the hearty partying; they slept all day Sunday and didn't make it back to Duke until early Monday morning. Rather than taking the final then, they decided that after the final, they would explain to their professor why they missed it. They said that they visited friends but on the way back, had a flat tire. As a result, they missed the final. The professor agreed they could make up the final the next day. The guys were excited and relieved. They studied that night for the exam. He placed them in separate rooms and gave them a test booklet. They quickly answered the first problem, worth five point! s. Cool, they thought! Each one, in separate rooms, thought this is going to be easy. Then they turned the page. On the second page was written: For 95 points: Which tire --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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