Is this an "effect"--or rather an association? Also, stat. significance simply means that it is not likely chance, not that it absolutely could not be due to chance. Gary
Gerald L. (Gary) Peterson, Ph.D. Professor, Psychology Saginaw Valley State University University Center, MI 48710 989-964-4491 [email protected] >>> "Beth Benoit" <[email protected]> 1/6/2009 1:59 pm >>> Annette,Interesting! Gladwell was talking about Canadian hockey teams though. I suspect that Malcolm is right, and there is an effect across the board, but perhaps not as robust as he suggests except in specific teams. More to ponder.... Beth Benoit Granite State College New Hampshire On Tue, Jan 6, 2009 at 1:39 PM, <[email protected]> wrote: > I must have nothing else to do today because I decided to print out all the > NHL > rosters. > > Here is what I found: > > 205/682 players are listed with birth dates in JanFebMar. > > A chi-square analysis suggests this is significant at less than .01 and > hence > could not have occurred by chance. > > Of course, the same holds true for a comparison of players who list their > home > towns in North America (where presumably the elite teams are decided by > birth > dates, versus those whose home towns are outside North America (the VAST > majority from former Soviet Union or Scandinavian countries--don't know > what > to think about Korea or Brazil, except these kids must have lived > elsewhere) and > for whom I don't know if the birthdate thing holds true where the figures > are: > North American born JanFebMar=142 > North American born AMJJASOND = 339 > outside NA born JanFebMar = 63 > outside NA born AMJJASOND = 138 > > Now this all gets more dramatic if you look at top and bottom 4 teams in > the > current (midseason just about) standing: > Top 4 teams: San Jose, Boston, Detroit, Washington: > JFM = 39 players > rest = 63 players > So 38%, or more than the expected 33.3% > > Bottom 4 teams: Islanders, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Ottawa > JFM = 29 players > rest = 72 players > So 32%, or slightly less than the expected 33.3% > > So, Beth, maybe overall there is something to Gladwell's > hypothese--although I > do like your caveat to check things out :) > > Annette > > > Annette > > Annette Kujawski Taylor, Ph.D. > Professor of Psychology > University of San Diego > 5998 Alcala Park > San Diego, CA 92110 > 619-260-4006 > [email protected] > > ---- Original message ---- > >Date: Tue, 6 Jan 2009 09:59:34 -0500 > >From: "Dennis Goff" <[email protected]> > >Subject: RE: [tips] using "Outliers" in the classroom > >To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" > <[email protected]> > > > >Similar results have been found for US soccer players in the Olympic > Development Program. The effect might only hold for male athletes though. I > remember seeing a similar result for professional players in Europe. I am > working from home today and don't have access to the references. I think > that a > search for "birth date and elite athlete" on Google Scholar will find some > of that > research. > > > >Best > >Dennis > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: [email protected] on behalf of Beth Benoit > >Sent: Tue 1/6/2009 9:30 AM > >To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) > >Subject: Re: [tips] using "Outliers" in the classroom > > > >What a perfect follow-up study, Jim. Interesting thought that older > >players (January - June birthdates) continue to play minor > >hockey till a later age than do the younger players (July - December > >birthdates) who tend to drop out of the sport. > > > >Hmmm...do you think this is a good subject pool though? It was only one > >hockey program, one season, almost 25 years ago: > >METHOD > >Subjects > >The team rosters of all players registered in the hockey program of the > >Edmonton Minor Hockey > >Association for the 1983-84 season comprised the sample for this study. > > > >Beth Benoit > >Granite State College > >New Hampshire > > > > > >On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 8:15 PM, Jim Clark <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> Hi > >> > >> Here's a nice study with data. > >> > >> http://www.socialproblemindex.ualberta.ca/RelAgeMinorHockeyCJBS.pdf > >> > >> Jim > >> > >> > >> James M. Clark > >> Professor of Psychology > >> 204-786-9757 > >> 204-774-4134 Fax > >> [email protected] > >> > >> Department of Psychology > >> University of Winnipeg > >> Winnipeg, Manitoba > >> R3B 2E9 > >> CANADA > >> > >> > >> >>> "Christopher D. Green" <[email protected]> 05-Jan-09 6:30 PM >>> > >> Beth Benoit wrote: > >> > > >> > The section I'm considering using is the claim that Canadian ice > >> > hockey players are more likely to be born in the first few months of > >> > the calendar year. I'll probably follow the same method as > >> > above, breaking students into groups to examine the roster I'll hand > >> > out, then giving them Gladwell's explanation. > >> > .... > >> > I'd also be interested in thoughts from our Canadian brethren about > >> > the concept of early birthdates being helpful to hockey success. > >> > Stephen, Chris? > >> > >> Funny, I had just heard this claim over Christmas from a relative of > >> mine. She said that something like half of NHLers are born in the first > >> three or four months of the year. But for all I know, she got this from > >> the Gladwell book (which I haven't read). > >> > >> The general claim makes some sense to me. When kids are young, the size > >> and coordination differences between those born in January and those > >> born in December can be quite noticeable. I'd be a little surprised, > >> however, if this continued on into the elite levels as strongly as is > >> claimed for three reasons: (1) Many professional hockey players are > >> mostly huge compared to the rest of us, and so they were probably never > >> small compared to their classes, even if they were a few months younger > >> then average. (2) It is not the case that once you're the best in your > >> class you always remain that way. For instance, I was just talking to > >> friends whose 14-yr-old daughter has been very good a volleyball until > >> now. She was also taller than most of her classmates, but this year she > >> her growth has slowed while many of her classmates have caught up or > >> passed her, so she is quite suddenly not as dominant as she has been up > >> to now. By the time one reaches elite levels of sport, I would expect > >> that much of the early advantage would be neutralized. (3) At elite > >> levels of a sport, sheer physical talent is an important factor. Most of > >> we ordinary mortals could not compete with them even if we practiced as > >> many hours a day as they do. > >> > >> Canada goes against Sweden for the world junior championship tonight! Go > >> Canucks! > >> > >> Chris > >> -- > >> > >> Christopher D. Green > >> Department of Psychology > >> York University > >> Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 > >> Canada > >> > >> > >> > >> 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 > >> [email protected] > >> http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ > >> > >> ========================== > >> > >> > >> --- > >> To make changes to your subscription contact: > >> > >> Bill Southerly ([email protected]) > >> > >> > >> --- > >> To make changes to your subscription contact: > >> > >> Bill Southerly ([email protected]) > >> > > > > > > > >-- > >"We will not learn how to live in peace by killing each other's children." > - > >Jimmy Carter > >"Are our children more precious than theirs?" > > > >--- > >To make changes to your subscription contact: > > > >Bill Southerly ([email protected]) > > > > > >--- > >To make changes to your subscription contact: > > > >Bill Southerly ([email protected]) > >________________ > >TNEF43543.rtf (6k bytes) > > > --- > To make changes to your subscription contact: > > Bill Southerly ([email protected]) > -- "We will not learn how to live in peace by killing each other's children." - Jimmy Carter "Are our children more precious than theirs?" --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
