Stats, stats, everywhere! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/med_swine_flu_glance
I have head on the news repeatedly over the last couple of days, people wondering why there have been 103 deaths in Mexico, but none anywhere else. Is the exported version "weaker"? Are the people to whom it is exported "stronger"? My suspicion is that it is a simple matter of statistics (which journalists are notoriously poor at). Consider: 103 deaths in 1,614 Mexican cases. That is about a 6% death rate, officially. I strongly suspect that you will find there have been many, many more cases of Mexicans who were infected but did not become ill enough to report it or go to hospital. So the death rate is probably, in actuality, much lower than 6%. In the US, there have been only 40 confirmed cases thus far. 6% of that would be 2.4 deaths. So far there have been none. That's not far off expectation. If my hypothesis that there have been many, many more unreported mild cases is true, then it is probably just where one would expect it to be. No other country has had even 20 cases thus far (and no deaths). So, the statistical lesson to pass on to your students during this eminently "teachable moment"? Calm down. This is not a disaster. It is very unlikely to become a disaster. There will be some deaths, almost certainly. There are about 40,000 deaths annually from influenza in the US in normal years. There is, as yet, little indication that this number will rise dramatically this year. Chris -- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 [email protected] http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ "Censorship is the strongest drive in human nature; sex is a weak second." - Phil Kerby, former editor of the /Los Angeles Times/ ========================== --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
