This sort of reasoning is distressingly common. I served on a jury where the evidence against the defendant was far from convincing. One juror, college educated, could not be persuaded that the defendant was not guilty. I asked him what his subjective probability was that the defendant was guilty -- he responded "50-50, either he did it or he did not do it." Then I asked him if he understood what the judge was saying about "beyond a reasonable doubt." His angry response was "if he were not guilty he would not be on trial." Think twice before asking for a jury trial in North Carolina.
Cheers, Karl W. -----Original Message----- From: Michael Britt [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 7:24 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: [tips] The chances of the world ending as we know it There was a very funny sketch on the Daily Show last week that might make for an interesting class conversation about the importance of understanding data (particularly probability). Or perhaps the importance of thinking things through a little more carefully. The skit is about the infamous particle accelerator being built in Switzerland. John Oliver interviewed one of the physicists for the accelerator who tells him about the very small chance that the world will "blow up" as a result of the collisions in the accelerator. Oliver then talks to science teacher Walter Wagner, who states that he thinks there's a 50-50 chance that the world would blow up. Wagner's reasoning: it (the world blowing up) will either happen or not happen - so it's a 50-50 chance! He's filing a lawsuit to stop the accelerator. The skit is pretty funny, but typical of the Daily Show, has some mature language as well. Here's the link: http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=225916 To see the relevant part of the video you'll have to click at the first demarcation in the timeline (about 9 minutes in and unfortunately you'll have to wait through 2 30-second commercials, but it's very funny and worth the wait). My thought is that an interesting class discussion could be made by applying this same kind of thinking to your chances of coming down with swine flu. Do students think that like Mr. Wagner, since they can either get swine flu or not get the swine flu that they have a 50-50 chance of getting swine flu? Michael Britt [email protected] www.thepsychfiles.com --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
