Well, had I divided all my numbers by 100,000, I'd've been a winner, then? And besides, in what sense is a 11.5 persons most easily understandable? Half-persons are exceedingly rare.
;) m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor and Chair Department of Psychology College of Arts & Sciences Baker University -- ________________________________ From: Beth Benoit [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, June 11, 2009 12:35 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: [tips] Gigerenzer aler: an exercise (From Stephen Black) Subject header: Gigerenzer aler: an exercise We have a winner! Frank LoSchiavo wrote (privately to me, but with his permission): > For every patient correctly identified as having Alzheimer's, approx > 11.5 will be incorrectly identified as having Alzheimer's. Sounds like > a > high false positive rate. I prefer this version to the ones provided by Marc Carter and Claudia Stanny because it better fulfills one of Gigerenzer's principles, that the statistic should be presented in its most easily understandable form. And realizing that for every person who correctly assesses him/herself as having Alzheimer's, the probability is that 11 others will determine they have Alzheimer's when they don't is pretty readily grasped. Some of us of a certain age are always wondering whether this is the start of it (usually when we can't remember a name). If this 5-minute self-assessment test becomes popular, it could lead to mass panic (I didn't do so well on it myself). Honourable mention: Chris Green. And here's your prize, Frank. Today is June 11th, 2009, and you're in Ohio. Stephen. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University e-mail: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> 2600 College St. Sherbrooke QC J1M 1Z7 Canada Subscribe to discussion list (TIPS) for the teaching of psychology at http://flightline.highline.edu/sfrantz/tips/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) ________________________________ The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto ("e-mail") is sent by Baker University ("BU") and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
