(From Stephen Black)

Subject header: Gigerenzer aler: an exercise

We have a winner! Frank LoSchiavo wrote (privately to me, but with his
permission):

> For every patient correctly identified as having Alzheimer's, approx
> 11.5 will be incorrectly identified as having Alzheimer's. Sounds like > a
high false positive rate.

I prefer this version to the ones provided by Marc Carter and Claudia
Stanny because it better fulfills one of Gigerenzer's principles, that
the statistic should be presented in its most easily understandable form.

And realizing that for every person who correctly assesses him/herself as
having Alzheimer's, the probability is that 11 others will determine they
have Alzheimer's when they don't is pretty readily grasped.

Some of us of a certain age are always wondering whether this is the
start of it (usually when we can't remember a name). If this 5-minute
self-assessment test becomes popular, it could lead to mass panic (I
didn't do so well on it myself).

Honourable mention: Chris Green.

And here's your prize, Frank. Today is June 11th, 2009, and you're in
Ohio.

Stephen.

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Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus
Bishop's University      e-mail:  [email protected]
2600 College St.
Sherbrooke QC  J1M 1Z7
Canada

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