Hi I think if you look for the history of this problem you will find reports of many people with PhDs, including mathematicians, publicly criticizing reports of the correct solution. So the authors may not be depending on data of their own on mathematicians for their admittedly loaded title. There are reports that a famous Hungarian mathematician, Paul Erdos, was even caught by the problem, although there appears to be some question whether he actually tried to "prove" his (wrong) intuition.
The best "intuitive" argument for the switch strategy (which doubles your chances of winning in the 3 door problem) is to imagine there are 100 doors and after your choice the host opens 98 of the remaining doors (i.e., all but one in addition to your choice). Do you switch or stay with your original choice (which only had 1 in 100 chance of being correct and 99/100 chances of being incorrect)? Clearer here that you should switch, but logic is same for the 3 door problem. Take care Jim James M. Clark Professor of Psychology 204-786-9757 204-774-4134 Fax [email protected] >>> "Shearon, Tim" <[email protected]> 18-Mar-10 2:00:49 PM >>> Rick said: "After searching the entire article for the word, 'mathematician', I found that it appears only in the title, intro, discussion and references. [ ] I am glad I showed some uncharacteristic restraint and didn't send this to my mathematics colleague before reading it." Rick- I was thinking the same thing about the article. It appears, on scanning it, that they may have used a bit of spin- "mathematicians" sounds better than "undergraduate mathematics majors". :) Tim _________________________________________________________________ Timothy O. Shearon, PhD Professor and Chairperson of Psychology The College of Idaho 2112 Cleveland Blvd Caldwell, ID 83605 teaching: Bio and neuropsychology, history and systems, general, psychopharmacology [email protected] --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=1362 or send a blank email to leave-1362-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=1364 or send a blank email to leave-1364-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
