Rick Froman wrote: > Here is an interesting graphic that could provide a jumping off point for > some discussions on correlational relationships. > > http://awesome.good.is/transparency/web/1006/crime-and-unemployment/flat.html > >
One word: demographics. As the population ages, crime rates go down (mainly because the bulk of crime is committed by young men, and as young men come to constitute a smaller proportion of the population, the crime rate declines). No doubt, unemployment (especially of the chronic "no-hope" variety) has some effect on crime rate (especially drug-related crime), it is probably outweighed by the impact of demographics. There was a terrific trade books on basic demographics several years ago called _Boom, Bust, & Echo_ by a Toronto-based demographer named David Foot. (There was a followup called _Boom, Bust, & Echo 2000_, but I didn't read it so I don't know how much of it overlaps with the original and how much of it is new.) It seems to be out of print now, but there are lots of used copies available. Because it was Canadian, it didn't have much impact in the US, but it was a big deal here, and it spends a lot of space comparing trends in the US and Canada. The book changed the way I think about a lot of social issues. People (news people in particular) like to explain various social trends and "crises" by attributing psychological properties to whole generations (they're lazy, they're self-involved, they're more religious, they're more family-oriented, they're more job-oriented, etc.). Foot shows that most of this is bunk and that most of it (2/3, he says) boils down to demographics -- how large a particular generation is has a lot to do with how easy it will be for them to, e.g., get jobs, get promoted, have an impact on the marketplace, etc. > > "The LORD detests both Type I and Type II errors." Proverbs 17:15 > > But journal editors are mostly oblivious to Type II errors, and they decide who gets published. :-) Chris -- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 [email protected] http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ ========================== --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=3147 or send a blank email to leave-3147-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
