Mike P: God saw the faith of millions and decided to spare the world.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Palij" <[email protected]>
To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)"
<[email protected]>
Cc: "Mike Palij" <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, May 22, 2011 4:59 PM
Subject: [tips] The "Great Disappointment"
May 21, 2011 has come and gone and though I was tempted
to cash in the retirement account and spend it on cocaine and
strippers until the rapture came, I decided instead to work
on my summer course. I did check the news.google.com and
other websites for info about unusual activity (the NY Mets
beating the NY Yankees on Friday night could be interpreted
as a sign of the apocalypse but the Yankees beat the Mets on
Saturday night and now all is right with the world). There
were rapture parties and one confused old man in Times
Square who had spent $140,000 of his retirement money to
advertise the end of the world -- he expected to be raised to
heaven in Times Square and could not understand what went
wrong. There are many others who are similarly stunned and
experienced a sense of "great disappointment".
The phrase "great disappointment" actually refers to an event
in U.S. religious history when William Miller predicted that the
Jesus Christ would return (i.e., the rapture would occur) sometime
between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844. After the
date passed, "Millerites" experienced the "great disappointment"
but apparently most maintained their belief in Miller. For
more detail about the "great disappointment" see the Wikipedia
entry (yadda-yadda):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Disappointment
It should be noted that humans seem oddly susceptible to beliefs
about a religiously based "end of the world" and that the chosen
will be saved while unbelievers will be horribly punished for the
sin of their unbelief. Wikipedia has an entry/lists of predictions
for the end of the world but it is far from complete; see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predicted_dates_of_the_end_of_the_world
My favorite is the entry for the "Church of the SubGenius"
which predicted the end of the world on July 5,1998; quoting:
|Claimed that aliens would invade, destroy most of humanity
|(except for the SubGenii), and install a puppet government of
|evil clowns to rule over the survivors (except for the SubGenii)
|while the survivors' souls were harvested by "Elder Gods". Later
|claimed that memo from aliens was upside-down and the world
|would actually end on July 5, 8661. Also claimed that the aliens
|used a different system for numbering years anyway.
Just another "unfulfilled religious prediction" in a long history
of failed prophecies; see the Wikipedia entry for a partial
list; see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfulfilled_religious_predictions
One source that deals with these issues is Charles Mackay's
1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness
of Crowds". Wikipedia has an entry on this; see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds
There is much in this book (three volumes) that is still relevant
to today's world such as the nature of economic "bubbles".
Not mentioned in the Wiki entry is the chapter titled "Modern
Prophecies" which covers end of the world prophecies from
999 AD to "modern times" (i.e., 1841). There is printed version
of Mackay's book which one can buy from Amazon or other
booksellers but there is also an online version provided by the
Gutenberg Project; the chapter on "modern prophecies" can
be accessed here: (NOTE: it is in HTML format and the page
is very long)
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/dvi.html#prophecies
(this a copy of the 1852 edition)
One is tempted to say "the more things change..." but a question
arises: Why do people believe this stuff?
Festinger & Co provide an account for what happens after prophecy
fails but why do people believe in the "prophecy" in the first place?
Some explanations are based on "motivated reasoning" (here is one
source on the topic: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2270237 )
but this can't account completely for believing in prophecies or
other "unreasonable" beliefs (i.e., beliefs that are resistant to evidence,
feedback, and other measures that would show the beliefs to be
false). There is something about social behavior, group membership
and other factors that are lacking. Steven Reibord, Psychology Today
blogger, wrote on the "lure of rapture" in a blog entry published
yesterday. There a part that addresses my concerns and I quote it
here:
|There is a non-religious definition of rapture: "n. the state of being
|carried away with joy, love, etc.; ecstasy." In a larger sense, we all
|seek to connect with something bigger than ourselves. For many,
|it is religion and its connection with God. Others find connection
|and larger purpose in humanitarian or political work. Playing music
|or team sports with others can satisfy this need to some extent, as
|can being part of the crowd at a concert or other event. Even mobs
|and riots satisfy this need, albeit in destructive ways. The lure to
|belong, to share experiences with others, to have a larger purpose,
|to be "in a groove" seems innate. I once saw a greeting card that
|read, "People who never get carried away... should be."
Clearly, this is a phenomenon that psychologists should study
especially given (a) how often beliefs in the rapture/end of the world
have taken hold in human history (i.e., why are people susceptible
to such beliefs) and (b) the consequences of holding such a belief
(e.g., giving up one's job, spending one's life saving, etc.; in NYC
some wags advertised for subleasing the apartments in choice/high
status neighborhoods of people who believed that they would be
going to heaven) and the consequences of finding that the belief
is wrong. I'm thinking of that old man in Times Square who thought
he was saved and going to heaven and now finds himself still stuck in
NYC and with his life savings gone.
Psychologists need to get to work on these issues quickly. Afterall,
we all know that the world is really ending in 2012. ;-)
-Mike Palij
New York University
[email protected]
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