Related thing: of what possible meaningfulness can fractional milliseconds have? That has always troubled me.
(Although I confess to having reported them on occasion...) m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor of Psychology Chair, Department of Behavioral and Health Sciences College of Arts & Sciences Baker University -- From: Paul C Bernhardt [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:51 AM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Positive Psychology Last post of the day... Which brings us to a particular peeve of mine: the lack of attention to significant figures in social sciences. We create a false sense of precision of measurement by retaining way too many digits in our reported values. We calculate means and habitually round to 'two decimal places' as if that is correct. It is rarely correct. The text I teach stats from says to round to one more decimal place than the original data was measured. That's still incorrect from a significant figures perspective, but is at least not too badly creating a false impression of precision of measurement. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures How this persists, I do not know... <sigh> Paul On Oct 31, 2013, at 11:14 AM, Christopher Green wrote: Here's a general rule about mathematics and science: if you can't even measure your data accurately and precisely (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision) then you can't make accurate and precise predictions. One of my favorite points in my stats class each year is when I have taught them all that elaborate machinery for extracting a regression line from bivariate data, and then how to use it to make predictions. They are all feeling very empowered at that point. And then I start working the standard error of the estimate, and they gradually realize that for most common kinds of psychological data, the confidence interval on any given prediction rarely gives you a range much better than "top half of the data" or "bottom half of the data." I put it to you that very little in psychology is measured either precisely or accurately -- especially emotional states like happiness -- and so point predictions of the kind presented in the article were unlikely to be very useful even if the first author had understood the math (or the co-author had understood psychology). (I, too, 20 years or so ago, thought that non-linear dynamics might unlock psychology, until I realized that we mostly didn't have data good enough to bear that level of scrutiny.) "Bigwigs" like Seligman who praised the article (presumably taking the math on faith) should have known better, but we all know that positive psychology is equal parts Barnum and Carnegie, with just a soupçon of illustrative data to make it seem worth arguing about (don't we?). Chris --- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ ========================= On 2013-10-31, at 10:18 AM, Jim Clark wrote: Hi I loved this quote in the article from a book titled "Social science as sorcery." The recipe for authorship in this line of business is as simple as it is rewarding: just get hold of a textbook of mathematics, copy the less complicated parts, put in some references to the literature in one or two branches of the social studies without worrying unduly about whether the formulae which you wrote down have any bearing on the real human actions, and give your product a good-sounding title, which suggests that you have found a key to an exact science of collective behaviour. (Andreski, 1972, pp. 129-130) Reminds me of some of the similarly damning comments about post-modernist and like efforts to see relevance to social phenomena in such things as relativity theory and quantum physics. I could not follow the math in the article but my take-away was that some people in our discipline are too quick to push theory way ahead of any empirical base. I've always been struck by how "The origin of species" cites massive amounts of data (i.e., observations) in support of a few basic principles. Unfortunately in psychology, I believe we have moved too far in the direction of thinking that major theoretical advances happen quickly. One manifestation of this view is the requirement that papers for some (most?) of our major journals must be large multi-study papers with strong theoretical conclusions. What we need are more journals that publish the results of studies (damn the theory) that can then be integrated once sufficient and reliable observations are available. In essence what journals like the Journal of Experimental Psychology and Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior use to be. Take care Jim Jim Clark Professor & Chair of Psychology 204-786-9757 4L41A -----Original Message----- From: Paul C Bernhardt [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2013 9:03 AM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Positive Psychology The two things that caught me agape was (1) that Fredrickson did not understand the mathematics behind her strongly asserting paper. They are tough mathematics, so I guess she was trusting her co-author...But (2) he stopped reading the paper part way through? He's an author and he didn't read it? Then, his dismissive response of 'I am not interested in these academic squabbles, I have more important work to do.' Sorry, buddy. When you enter the academic realm to gain the imprimatur of published work to support your private business you tacitly agree to stay in the fray of academic discourse. Of course, there's no way to hold his feet to the fire. Unless other editors become unwilling to publish future work by him because of his evidenced unwillingness to be responsive to appropriately posed queries. <sigh>... as I posted a few weeks ago, I am becoming a bit despondent over the state of our science. Paul On Oct 31, 2013, at 6:54 AM, Louis Eugene Schmier wrote: And so? Make it a good day -Louis- Louis Schmier http://www.therandomthoughts.edublogs.org<http://www.therandomthoughts.edublogs.org/> 203 E. Brookwood Pl http://www.therandomthoughts.com<http://www.therandomthoughts.com/> Valdosta, Ga 31602 (C) 229-630-0821 /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /^\\/ \/ \ /\/\__ / \ / \ / \/ \_ \/ / \/ /\/ / \ /\ \ //\/\/ /\ \__/__/_/\_\/ \_/__\ \ /\"If you want to climb mountains,\ /\ _ / \ don't practice on mole hills" - / \_ On Oct 31, 2013, at 6:01 AM, Allen Esterson wrote: >From Chronicle of Higher Education, 31 October 2013: The 2009 book Positivity: Top-Notch Research Reveals the 3 to 1 Ratio That Will Change Your Life, by Barbara Fredrickson, was praised by the heavyweights of psychology. Daniel Gilbert said it provided a "scientifically sound prescription for joy." Daniel Goleman extolled its "surefire methods for transforming our lives." Martin E.P. Seligman often called the father of positive psychology, raved that "this book, like Barb, is the 'real thing.'" [...] The book grew out of a 2005 paper by Fredrickson and Marcial Losada, a Chiliean psychologist and consultant, the findings of which suggest that "a set of general mathematical principles may describe the relations between positive affect and human flourishing."... Then along came Nick Brown, a graduate student in applied positive psychology at the University of East London... Read the rest here: http://chronicle.com/blogs/percolator/the-magic-ratio-that-wasnt/3327 9 The cited (genuinely scholarly) article on the misuse of mathematics as described by Nick Brown is here: http://arxiv.org/abs/1307.7006 http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.7006v1.pdf Allen Esterson Former lecturer, Science Department Southwark College, London [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> http://www.esterson.org<http://www.esterson.org/> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=931223.50b956e1f0f315eddcd01dfbd8b8 7bc1&n=T&l=tips&o=29252 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-29252-931223.50b956e1f0f315eddcd01dfbd8b87bc1@fsulist.frostburg<mailto:leave-29252-931223.50b956e1f0f315eddcd01dfbd8b87bc1@fsulist.frostburg> .edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f2630 03&n=T&l=tips&o=29255 or send a blank email to leave-29255-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263003@fsulist.frostburg.e<mailto:leave-29255-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263003@fsulist.frostburg.e> du --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=29263 or send a blank email to leave-29263-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-29263-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62bd92&n=T&l=tips&o=29266 or send a blank email to leave-29266-430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62b...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-29266-430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62b...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263003&n=T&l=tips&o=29274 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-29274-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-29274-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c90e1&n=T&l=tips&o=29276 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-29276-13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c9...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-29276-13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c9...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> ________________________________ The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto ("e-mail") is sent by Baker University ("BU") and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=29278 or send a blank email to leave-29278-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
