Once upon a time sagrilarus shaped the electrons to say...
>     Not sure I would use the word "astronomical" as that is a bit of
> an overstatement.  Two of my monthly bills would likely cover it.  All

DirecTV has over 13 million subscribers.  If they dropped MPEG2
completely and went to MPEG4, every single receiver would have to be
changed.  And some of those subscribers have multiple receivers.  Each
receiver, even non-DVR, costs DTV a couple hundred bucks at minimum to
get into ghe field.  DVR boxes cost several hundred more.

It would be a massive outlay if they tried to do it.

> the cable companies are making that rollover now and seem to be able

What cable companies?  Cable companies aren't making a big change.
Current digital cable systems are MPEG2 and there are no plans to
change that in the near future.  CableCard isn't a big deal for them,
they don't have to make any wholesale changes to their infrastructure
to support it and they don't have to replace cable boxes in the field
now, they continue to work - with perhaps a firmware update.

Cable companies fought, and won, the requirement to switch to
CableCard *only* by July 2006, now it is July 2007 - and they'll
probably fight that.  They're trying to delay the forced change to
CableCard only networks because of the cost to them.  Even if they can
keep boxes in the field as-is, there is a cost to buying new stock and
validating new designs.

> decision.  What you're describing seems reasonable if they have
> sufficient spectrum to handle the current lineup.

The new satellites are Ka band, the old ones are Ku, IIRC.  So it is a
new infrastructure.  New channels will be going on the new birds.  And
as the old channels switch to HD, etc, they'll move to MPEG4 and the
new birds.  So there really isn't any pressure on the old birds, they
can continue indefinitely with the existing lineup and there is still
room to grow on the transponders in orbit.  So there is little
incentive for them to replace what is working today.  MPEG4 and the
new birds is an investment in growth, with the expectation of being
able to provide spot beams of local HD content across their full
coverage area.

>     MegaZone, what is your source please?  Is this official word from
> DTV, or word on the street?  I know there's interest in getting onto

I've read a lot of articles in the technical mags, etc, about TiVo,
DTV, DVRs, etc.  I've also spoken to DirecTV reps at CES2004 and
CES2005 about their plans.  There have been interviews with DTV
executives about their plans, and they've stuck to the plans for new
HD content in MPEG4 on the new birds, and existing content remaining
in MPEG2 to avoid disrupting their existing customers.

I won't be surprised if, eventually, they migrate to MPEG4 for
everything - but that's years away.  It will give them time for users
to attrition over naturally - people replace an old receiver, upgrade
to a DVR, etc, and they'll get a unit that does MPEG2 & 4, and Ka &
Ku.  In the end it'll mean less users they have to force an upgrade
on.

> the new card-tuner-driven boxes as well and I'm curious about whether
> that means I will be getting a new Tivo-like box or sticking with my
> current one for the foreseeable future.

CableCard is cable only.  DirecTV gives every indication of dropping
TiVo completely.  They're already said that all marketing efforts will
focus on their new NDS DVR.  DirecTiVos will be available on request,
but they will not be promoted in any way.  People will need to know
enough to ask for one if they want one.  The license expires in early
2007, unless they renew - and it looks unlikely that they will - they
cannot sell new units after it expires.  DTV can continue to support
existing users indefinitely, so they're not getting turned off or
anything.

On the cable front, it looks like both the Comcast TiVo software and
TiVo's standalone CableCard unit are still targetted for mid-2006.

-MZ
-- 
<URL:mailto:megazoneatmegazone.org> Gweep, Discordian, Author, Engineer, me.
"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-852-2171
<URL:http://www.megazone.org/>  <URL:http://www.eyrie-productions.com/> Eris


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