How one can make a statement about not seeing something this century is beyond me, but especially when it involves a mere eight times what the current technology offers (i.e. 8GB card to 65GB card). Think about it. The first mass-market hard drives for PC's came out 26 years ago and stored a whopping 5MB (that megabytes, not gigabytes), and they probably cost $1000 or more. We now have 750GB hard drives that you can get for $500. That's a 150,000 increase in capacity and an at least the same degree of cheapening within the last just 25 years. Since the pace of technology tends to accelerate every year, we're likely to see the next 25 years bring not just a 150,000 fold increase, but perhaps 1.5 million increase? So scrap the idea of a 65GB flash card and go for a 12PB (Petabyte or 1000TB) microdrive in a couple of decades. And that's just a third of the way through the century. Probably by century's end even yottabytes (1 billion petabytes) will seem quaint, and perhaps a lot sooner than that. Of course this is all conjecture and while my hunch is that in the not too distant future storage will get so cheap and plentiful that it will cease to be an issue, there are a zillion variables that will determine how, when, and even whether this happens. I just think it's a little odd to say X will or won't happen in 94 years. That's quite a ways out. Even Ray Kurzweil seems to only predict things out to mid-century or so ;-)
Levi Wallach
<http://twelveblackcodemonkeys.com> - Blog
<http://dvdmon.com> - DVD Reviews
<http://wallachexpressions.smugmug.com> - Photos
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Don Ferguson
> Sent: Monday, May 08, 2006 11:50 AM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: RE: [Treo] One device for all? - phone to take over
> mp3 players
>
> Craig and Jeff,
>
> I wouldn't underestimate technological progress. Actually, I
> would, and I have, only to be proved wrong and be surprised
> over and over. It's one of the things that's fun about my
> business. I just bought a 4gb SD card for $87. If you'd
> told me I could do that just a couple of years ago, I'd've
> said you were nuts. It wasn't that long ago that 4gb CF
> cards were a $4000 experiment. 8gb were $20,000. Now, I bet
> 8gb cards drop below $100 in the next two years.
>
> The amount of music one might accumulate is probably going to
> grow more slowly than the capacity of storage. I bought my
> son a 256mb memory stick
> 1.5 years ago for Christmas. It cost $120. For myself, I
> just bought a 2gb Sandisk for $47.
>
> I know it's not the same form factor, but on the laptop I
> just bought I have a 100gb hard drive. In my office,
> spinning, I have over 2tb of disk space
> -- and that's just retail stuff; Maxtor and Seagate and
> Western Digital
> external drives. They're tiny and cool and quiet. The technology is
> leaping forward. I just put a 300gb Seagate HDD in my son's
> computer; paid
> $169.95 for it.
>
> I would not be at all surprised to see merged devices with
> 60gb or 80gb hdd's in the next year. I just hope Palm keeps
> up, or can keep up. I'm having to put in a hacked driver
> just to run the 4gb card I'm expecting from Newegg.
>
> Cheers,
> Don
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of jeff
> Sent: Monday, May 08, 2006 10:09 AM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: [Treo] One device for all? - phone to take over
> mp3 players
>
> . . . snip . . .
>
> Local storage is nice, but I have a 65GB collection -- not
> likely going to be an SD card with that capacity at an
> affordable price in this century.
>
> . . . snip . . .
>
> Years ago, a 10g laptop hd was unthinkable. 60g's are out now.
>
> . . . snip . . .
>
>
>
>
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