94 years? I know, you can't predict that far, but 94 years ago was
1912. Think about the state of things then and what a person from back
then would think of today's technology. Then extrapolate that 94 years
forward and you start to get the picture that time can things
unrecognizable within short periods, and those periods will get shorter
and shorter. Hasn't the world's population also grown 2-3 times within
that same period?
Levi Wallach
<http://twelveblackcodemonkeys.com> - Blog
<http://dvdmon.com> - DVD Reviews
<http://wallachexpressions.smugmug.com> - Photos
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Jeffrey Kaplan
> Sent: Monday, May 08, 2006 2:04 PM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: [Treo] One device for all? - phone to take over
> mp3 players
>
> Hello, Wallach, Levi.
>
> > How one can make a statement about not seeing something
> this century
> > is beyond me, but especially when it involves a mere eight
> times what
> > the current technology offers (i.e. 8GB card to 65GB card). Think
> > about it. The first mass-market hard drives for PC's came out 26
> > years ago and stored a whopping 5MB (that megabytes, not
> gigabytes),
> > and they probably cost $1000 or more. We now have 750GB
> hard drives
> > that you can get for $500. That's a 150,000 increase in
> capacity and
> > an at least the same degree of cheapening within the last just 25
> > years. Since the pace of technology tends to accelerate
> every year,
> > we're likely to see the next 25 years bring not just a 150,000 fold
> > increase, but perhaps 1.5 million increase? So scrap the idea of a
> > 65GB flash card and go for a 12PB (Petabyte or 1000TB)
> microdrive in a
> > couple of decades. And that's just a third of the way through the
> > century. Probably by century's end even yottabytes (1 billion
> > petabytes) will seem quaint, and perhaps a
> lot
>
> And it still won't be enough to reliably run Windows.
>
> --
> Jeffrey Kaplan www.gordol.org
> The from userid is killfiled Send personal mail to gordol
>
> Peter's Top 100 Things I'd Do If I Ever Became An Evil Overlord, #74.
> When I create a multimedia presentation of my plan designed
> so that my five-year-old advisor can easily understand the
> details, I will not label the disk "Project Overlord" and
> leave it lying on top of my desk.
>
>
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