Hi John,
I'm still digesting and cogitating about this posting of yours.
I've been trying to catch up on psychology and neuroscience for the past
year or two, mostly for personal reasons, and am struck by the fact that
if you take Eagleman's book /Incognito/ and Kahneman's book /Thinking
Fast and Slow/ and boil them down it's possible to get a perspective
about just how little magic is left in the way people actually behave
(vs the way we think we behave). That's not to say artificial abstract
reasoning is around the corner or to minimize what a vast gap there is
between any existing (i.e. domain-specific) AI and a person. Just saying
the nature of the lego blocks and simple collections of blocks seems to
be coming into focus.
And here's another submission for my guess that AI is sneaking up
on us in plain sight, albeit with more and more intellectual debt being
accrued:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2214731-robot-pilot-that-can-grab-the-flight-controls-gets-its-plane-licence/
-Pete
On 7/29/19 11:08 AM, John Vaughters via TriEmbed wrote:
What we (Society) call Machine Learning, I call weighted big data with
Artificial Stupidity. Yes the machine is learning, NO it is not
intelligent. Quite the opposite. In fact, it reminds me of the old
Sesame Street game, One of these does not belong with the other. Smart
comparisons based on big data inputs with massive processing. The
current Machine Learning will be useful as a tool, similar to a
ratchet wrench is to a car. It will help us for specific tasks, but
not all tasks. Ever try to use a ratchet wrench as a hammer, right,
well it does work, but can give very bad results. That is experience
talking :)
I've seen at least two articles from people in the industry stating we
are headed in the wrong direction on AI. One software and one
hardware. The software person used the same term I always use,
Artificial Stupidity. He felt that we had to re-think the entire
approach, but did not offer one. The point being he just flat out
believed smart weighted comparisons are not the answer. A tool yes,
but it will not lead to intelligence. The Hardware guy was somehow
connected to Intel and believed the heavy processing was not the
answer and instead of high electrical power with high processing power
is not the solution. They were looking at low power processing with
fast small calculations in massive parallel. Think video card cores.
These articles were pie in the sky thoughts, so no idea if they went
anywhere. All this tells me is what I have been saying for a long
time, we have no clue what intelligence is or how to create it. What
we keep doing is taking shots in the dark and extracting a little
light to take new aim with another shot. Each shot provides great
amazing tools. Object Oriented Programming came from one of those
shots. I don't know about you, but that was a pretty amazing concept
that lead to incredible advances in usable software. More tools are
coming that will blow our minds, but it still will not be intelligent.
Machine Learning is so complex and very unreliable, because when it
fails, it can be quite spectacular. The worse part is the creators
have no idea why it failed, because they cannot evaluate the neural
network. This is a real Frankenstein. Enough knowledge to build it but
not able to understand or control it. The phase we are in right now is
to build software to help evaluate what the neural nets are doing and
it is a massive task.
I have always criticized Elon Musk for being afraid of AI, but I have
backed down on him a bit. Because, if we allow some of this technology
to run our world, the fear is not that it will take over, but it will
fail and fail big. I have no idea why Elon Musk is afraid of AI, but I
do now see a very real issue where people think their software is
great and apply it in situations that can cause massive problems. For
instance, imagine AI implemented in an electric grid. SCARY! Ummmm
Weapons decisions. YIKES! Sadly, I have found out both of these are
being looked at, hence my fear level has raised, but not due to Sky
Net domination, Due to Human Stupidity allowing Artificial Stupidity
to be misused.
2 cents worth a half pence on a good day
John Vaughters
On Monday, July 29, 2019, 10:08:42 AM EDT, Brian via TriEmbed
<[email protected]> wrote:
On 7/27/19 5:07 PM, Mark Sidell via TriEmbed wrote:
> Favorite pick-up line: You look like a thing and I love you.
Best. Pick-up. Line. EVAR.
I may have to try this one.
-B
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