Can't you see for yourself that it is 50/50 - it can be or not, so it is as much "maybe malware" as "maybe goodware".

It is not because there are only two possibilities, that "it is 50/50". For example, http://www.privmetrics.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wisec2015.pdf says:

Our analysis shows that 60% of the paid apps are connected to trackers that collect personal information compared to 85%–95% in free apps. We further show that approximately 20% of the paid apps are connected to more than three trackers. With tracking being pervasive in both free and paid apps, we then quantify the aggregated privacy leakages associated with individual users. Using the data of user installed apps of over 300 smartphone users, we show that 50% of the users are exposed to more than 25 trackers which can result in significant leakages of privacy.

The reported numbers, which are only dealing with tracking (no other type of malware), are necessarily lower bounds: proprietary apps that were not proven to be connected to trackers may be connected to (currently undiscovered) trackers.

To find out you must test it or even reverse engineer it.

Exactly. And that is unfair. With an access to the source code it is orders of magnitude easier to study. Discovering trackers is possible. Discovering a backdoor that is not frequently used is basically impossible without an access to the source code. Users deserve to know what the software they run does. They deserve free software.

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