On Wed, Sep 23, 2009 at 10:00 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Another Mad Man quoted on Forbes says:  "I wouldn't be surprised if
> 'The Jay Leno Show' became one of the most profitable shows on the NBC
> schedule in prime time,"
> http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/09/13/2009-09-13T120027Z_01_N12468964_RTRIDST_0_TELEVISION-LENO-ANALYSIS-PIX.html
>
> A couple of commentators have been asking for a more detailed
> breakdown of the cost of a 30" ad on Leno, total ad revenue per
> episode, and total cost per episode to try find some way to valiidat
> the 300M claim. I would like to see that too. I think that at 1.5
> rating 300M might be a little bit of an over-estimate, but since Leno
> fell to a rating of 1.8 last night, on only his 6th show, even 1.5
> might end up pushing things. I still think the show will be a profit
> center for NBC, and make more profit than they would have gotten from
> 5 10:00 shows, but then at this rate it might turn out that NBC can
> make more profit by putting on info-mercials. But even if they would
> make more profit they probably wouldnt do that, because eventually the
> value of the NBC brand depends critically on the overall quality of
> its programming. Stripping info-mericials would make NBC a joke as a
> network, and ultimately detract from its value in other areas
> (morning, late night, sports, news). A time may come when the Jay Leno
> Show has more in common with an info-merical than it does with network
> entertainment programming.

>From the article, it wasn't easy to see what the panel was about, but
the Leno comment seemed offhand and not part of the main discussion.
In discussion of the profitability of the Leno show I didn't see a
mention of affiliates. Granted the network can see a profit with lower
ratings as long as they have a cheap show. But how long will
affiliates put up with lower revenue as well as lower lead-in ratings
to local news?

If anything, this reminds me of the late '90s when the networks went
nuts on newsmagazines. NBC had Dateline on pretty much every night and
they would replace failed series with another Dateline airing. It was
a great idea and profitable for the network until it wasn't any more.

Tom

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