On Sat, Sep 19, 2009 at 11:13 AM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 18, 2009 at 4:20 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote: >> From what I can gather (see links below), these are Leno's ratings for >> the first 4 nights (experts please correct if necessary): >> >> Monday: 18.4 Million >> Tuesday: 10.7 Million >> Wednesday: 13.1 Million >> Thursday: 8.8 Million > Friday: 7.4 Million > > I calculate the weekly average at 11.7 million (not sure I have all > apples above - some of these figures might be corrected in some way). > > Leno will still be successful even if he has a 40% drop-off once > regular competition sets in and novelty check-in wears off. > > What happens to Leno when NBC realizes it could get 7 million viewers > a night by stripping re-runs of classic Carson and Letterman?
Here are Leno's ratings for Week 2 (drawn from TV By The Numbers): Monday: 5.67 M Tuesday: 6.3 M Wednesday: 6.4 M Thursday: 4.99 M Friday: 5.68 M The per night average for the week was 5.84, which means he had a 50% drop-off from Week 1, not the 40% I had estimated. I have been assuming Leno would stabilize between 6.5 and 7 M per night - if that equilibrium is more like 5.5M - 6M, that can't be good news for NBC. Dave got 7.2 M for his Obama show on Monday, which was more than any single night of the Leno show this week. If Leno is not careful he may find that the only thing that got him to lose to Dave consistently was moving his show to 10:00. I can't remember off the top of my head, but I think Leno's Tonight Show was getting around 5.5 M per night, which means the Jay Leno Show is close to attracting the same number of viewers the Tonight Show with Jay Leno got - even though there are a lot more people watching television at 10:00 than 11:35. It is almost as if the exact same people who watched Leno at 11:35 are just watching him at 10:00 and then either going to bed early (or maybe they used to watch Leno and Conan, and now do both and still get to bed an hour early). Apparently, almost none of the new viewers who gave Leno a curiosity check last week stuck around this week. Of course, I am one of these. I saw all 5 episodes last week, and had intended to watch all 5 episodes this week, but just could not make myself watch even one (I have three on my TiVo, I may try to watch some this weekend). It is just that there is nothing about the Leno Show that I like - I don't like his monologue, I don't like his band, I don't like any of his comedy bits, I did not like any of his special "correspondents". I did like the Seinfeld interview, but the occasional interesting 8 minute interview is not enough to get me through the torture that is the rest of the show. I wish I could find the actual per minute ad rates based on various rating levels for this show, and a reliable report on the cost per show, to get some idea of what a reasonable minimum rating is for them. I am guessing they have been assuming that something around 5.5 M was going to be the floor for Leno, though they can probably be plenty profitable down to maybe 4.5 M. They might make a profit even below that level, but you have to wonder if even NBC can live with itself as a major network getting only 4M viewers at the 10:00 hour. At some point, doesn't that become a non-sustainable viewrship, just for purposes of promoting their own shows and delivering eyeballs to the local news? It seems like the question for the Leno Show has shifted from: "How many new viewers will Leno attract at 10:00?" to "How many of his old, loyal 11:35 viewers will he be able to hang on to at 10:00?". I guess after a couple of weeks it is possible previous Leno viewers will come home to him after checking out lame 10:00 pm shows on CBS or ABC. BTW - Who are the guys behind TV By the Numbers? I have been to their site a few times before, but the last two weeks have been there very frequently, and they seem to be fairly defensive of NBC in general and Leno in particular. If they are numbers guys they may just be defending the point that NBC's strategy is still likely to make money even if they get fewer viewers, but I was wondering if they have any affiliation with NBC. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
