On Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 11:13 AM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Cable’s “Sons of Anarchy” beat “The Jay Leno Show” for the first time
> in 18-49, pushing NBC’s 10 p.m. hour into fifth place behind Fox’s
> playoffs, “The Good Wife,” the FX biker drama and ABC’s aptly-titled
> “Forgotten.”

Leno also unable to beat Eastwick on Wed.

There are two ways to look at this of course. One is that Leno can't
even beat the lamest ass programs the broadcast competitors can put
against him. The other is that if NBC did not have Leno on at 10:00
they would likely have their own lame ass program doing not much
better, but losing a lot more money. While NBC execs are probably
trying to make themselves smile with the second way of looking at it,
the problem is that is ultimately self-annihilating reasoning. At some
point they could put on a show at 10:00 than only cost one hundred
dollars to make, draw 1000 viewers and show a profit of maybe
$1000.00, but by then they would long ago have ceased being a major
broadcaster.

The more I see how this is working out, the more certain I am that NBC
has to set some kind of absolute minimum viewership for Leno that is
independent of their profit margin on the show. That might be
something like a 1.3 or 1.4 rating (he got 1.6 on Tuesday), or 4.8  or
4.9M total viewers (he had 5.06M on Tuesday). But there has to be a
hard floor for Leno, even if NBC could still make a profit below it.

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