On Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 10:21 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> On Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 11:13 AM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> Cable’s “Sons of Anarchy” beat “The Jay Leno Show” for the first time
>> in 18-49, pushing NBC’s 10 p.m. hour into fifth place behind Fox’s
>> playoffs, “The Good Wife,” the FX biker drama and ABC’s aptly-titled
>> “Forgotten.”
>
> Leno also unable to beat Eastwick on Wed.
>
> There are two ways to look at this of course. One is that Leno can't
> even beat the lamest ass programs the broadcast competitors can put
> against him. The other is that if NBC did not have Leno on at 10:00
> they would likely have their own lame ass program doing not much
> better, but losing a lot more money. While NBC execs are probably
> trying to make themselves smile with the second way of looking at it,
> the problem is that is ultimately self-annihilating reasoning. At some
> point they could put on a show at 10:00 than only cost one hundred
> dollars to make, draw 1000 viewers and show a profit of maybe
> $1000.00, but by then they would long ago have ceased being a major
> broadcaster.
>
> The more I see how this is working out, the more certain I am that NBC
> has to set some kind of absolute minimum viewership for Leno that is
> independent of their profit margin on the show. That might be
> something like a 1.3 or 1.4 rating (he got 1.6 on Tuesday), or 4.8  or
> 4.9M total viewers (he had 5.06M on Tuesday). But there has to be a
> hard floor for Leno, even if NBC could still make a profit below it.

As a viewer, I don't know why I should be aware of, let alone support,
NBC's profits as relevant to its programming. A figurative example
that comes to mind is that I go to a restaurant I know well. I receive
a meal that falls below the standard I have come to expect there and I
complain to the server. In time, a manager comes out and explains to
me that the restaurant has decided to use cheaper ingredients and
their savings will offset alienating regular diners. My response would
be to make it the last time I eat there.

Even if the Leno Show is cheap enough to make NBC money with
cable-sized ratings, there has to real damage done to the brand. The
question going into the fall season was if the Leno model would lead
the other networks to cut their budgets. I hope these low ratings
answer the question.

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