On 4/11/11 1:07 AM, Kevin M. wrote:
>>> Thus, I think your argument actually supports a model that I think you are
>>> against, which is a very tightly bundled package.
> Except that the business model has failed in satellite radio. Not
> enough people are buying into it; they either don't want those options
> or cannot justify the expense.

I think you've hit it on the head here.  Most cannot justify the
expense, especially when there is a "free" version that they can get
over a regular radio.

Also, NAB ran a very successful campaign when satellite radio launched
to put into everyone's mind that they would rather listen to local
radio; for local news, talk, weather, and emergencies.  That's something
SiriusXM really can't overcome.  Whether it's true or not, the average
listener thinks they're listening to someone in their town playing music
(or otherwise) for them.  And they like to support the hometown media
outlets, regardless of which corporate conglomerate owns the station.

And if they really want, the more tech-savvy listener can use their
smartphone to stream music from one of many different types of services;
Pandora, Slacker, or even radio "from home" via Clear Channel's iheartradio.

What niche does that leave for SiriusXM?

They're a haven for long distance road travel, or rural locations with
one or two locals; otherwise it's a cheaper version of in-store music. 
Their smartphone apps and Internet listening are mixed into everything
else that's available over the web.

It's hard to justify the in-car expense if your travel time in the car
(most cars now have satellite built-in) is going to be small intervals;
the programming offered by SiriusXM - even with Stern - isn't anything
that you're going to stay in your car for because you "have to hear
it".  (XM before the merger was like that as a hook to get subscribers,
but the cost to produce that type of program outweighed the need to
reduce costs.)

The problem for me is that, as a long time XM subscriber, I've become
accustom to having someone program music for me without any
commercials.  When I turn on an FM station and hear a 5-10 minute block
of commercials, I cringe!

Playing from my personal music library on an iPod works too, but then
it's difficult to hear anything new.

I think the next game changer, coming very soon, will be a Netflix-esque
music service from the likes of Apple - listen to your personal music
library, and if you let us mix in some new music and other stuff, we'll
discount the cost for you to "store" your music on our cloud. 
Eventually you just buy a license to listen to your music without having
to upload it.  This is what services like Pandora and Slacker Radio
elude to now, but without the ability for you to access songs you want
to hear like an iPod does.

And I think (in a lame attempt to bring this back to TV...) that
Netflix, Hulu and other video streaming services are already bringing
this same concept full circle back to the television market.  Cable has
adapted by becoming your Internet service provider.  Make no mistake,
the announcement that Netflix is buying original programming is huge. 
No need to subscribe to cable TV anymore, except for live coverage of
sports, breaking news, or your local stations (for that sense of
community).  The only thing keeping the likes of SyFy, Cluu, etc. on the
air is that they are essentially commercials for old content (TV shows)
with even more commercials surrounding them.

Sean.

-- 
TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People!
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