On Mon, Apr 23, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 23, 2012 at 11:18 AM, Bob in Jersey <[email protected]> > wrote: > > It don't matter which platform you're looking at, everybody's numbers are > > down; some blame Idol, of course. > > > > A top researcher: “How many more people can be out smelling the roses > this > > year?” Also, an ex-NBC brass admits to liking a certain AMC show. > > > > Bill Carter is on it, boss... > > > > http://goo.gl/WKny7 > > But Carter really isn't on it. He just throws out some numbers and > interviews TV executives who say they don't know what it means. And > since they don't know what it means they won't make any adjustments so > they will either hope the trends suddenly reverse themselves or their > product will continue to lose value until collapse becomes inevitable. > > There seems to be a cognitive dissonance over the years. Each year > there are reports that ratings are down, especially for the money > demographics, and each May advertisers put up more upfront money to > provide the way for the current system to continue with radical > change. > I am not sure if Bob was being sarcastic in his initial post; I am going to disagree a bit with Tom here and defend Carter a bit. His piece would be stronger if he would have bothered to give us just a little bit of longitudinal data about viewing patterns (say, live and DVR ratings for the same 4 week period for broadcast and cable over the last 5 years). But if you read the article, he does basically address all of the relevant issues. Yes, viewing has been in decline for a while (including 14 straight quarters). But in the past most of the broadcast decline has been soaked up by cable increases. One of the unique features of this spring is that cable viewing is also in decline. Carter also notes that there is daylight savings time every year, and the declines seem in excess of what might be expected from good weather. Carter does suggest a real explanation for the decline - DVR and other time-shifting mechanisms are finally maturing. If watching a DVRs show was itself a show, it would have been the second rated program last week, behind only AI. Moreover, since AI has had a huge viewer decline, there has been an associated decline in live viewing those viewers would have done of other shows. Carter also quotes one ad guy as saying these numbers will have a real downward effect on ad prices this year. Thus it is possible that we are at, or at least very near, a real shift in how ad rates will be set - and maybe they will get serious about counting DVR views in ratings. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
