On Sat, Sep 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM, Wesley (in Texas) <[email protected]>wrote:
> One point to make... Today's Gallup poll includes responses from Friday. > As of now, the rate of does not appear to be leveling off, so from that one > data point, Friday's jobs report does not appear to have blunted the > momentum. > Yes - so far so good (from my POV). > > Anyway, I want to think more about what you wrote tomorrow, but I do think > there are two things to consider about bounces you missed. 1. Conventions > get less coverage on the major networks. Tropical Storm/Hurricane Issac > made this moot, but none of the broadcast nets were going to air anything > from RNC Monday. Outside cable news and C-SPAN, the conventions were given > but one hour a night for three nights each (minus NBC w/ Football). > This was an issue I addressed in one of my earlier posts on this topic, but I do agree with this. I guess my point has been that one consequence of the networks cutting back on coverage is that it makes it harder for challengers to incumbents to come from behind. > > Another theory (which I was thinking of) was that ... for whatever reason > ... convention watching/following is now something for only partisans. Thus > if it is only preaching to the converted, then there would be very little > to no bounce for either one. I thought it could possibly be that, after > seeing reports that MSNBC won day one of the DNC convention whereas Fox > News won the RNC conventions... > I think this is definitely an issue. Not only are there fewer undecideds in the overall population of voters, but fewer of the undecideds watch the conventions. Partisans watch to get angry or inspired, or for the fun (I watch for all three reasons), but not that many persuadable. I read a commenter on Nate's most recent article this evening suggest that the unexpected size of Obama's bump might in part be due to the convention inspiring his base enough that more of them are pasing the "likley voter" filter into the sample and getting counted. The danger there then would be that these are people whose fire might also quickly cool off. > Other factor may be that there being less gap between the conventions... > Some polls still days before Romney's speech in the tracking during the > start of the DNC convention. But it's nearly 1am, and it's too late for me > to think right about anything. > And now it is almost 1am out here, so I guess I will go to sleep too. Big day of football tomorrow. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
