On Fri, Jan 18, 2013 at 11:56 AM, Kevin M. <[email protected]> wrote:

> I'm not a big picture guy, and I am a cynic. Granting those premises,
> there is something I don't understand about Armstrong's confession,
> specifically his motivation for doing so. His career was already over,
> his family was already wrecked, his credibility was already shot, his
> endorsement deals were already dried up. All that a verbal confession
> does is open himself up for litigation (otherwise it would have been
> his word against the words of everybody was actually was caught
> doping, and no self-respecting judge would allow that in a courtroom).
> If I wasn't a cynic, I'd say the guilt was simply gnawing away at him,
> but I am and it wasn't. He certainly had a team of advisers, from
> marketing scum to lawyer scum, telling him what he should do. So why
> confess? What's in it for him?


I think the consensus on this is that: A) his sponsors and board members at
LiveStrong have been pressuring him to come clean. Presumably they have
some focus group or other data that indicates that while he might take a
short term hit, eventually donations to his org (and maybe even his value
to sponsors) would go up if he was seen to have confessed and apologies.
This is important to Armstrong - not just (or even primarily) for the good
his organization does, but because this is his primary way of staying in
the public eye post-racing career. B) he apparently wants to compete
in biathlons and other kinds of races, many of which are sanctioned by
organizations that have banned him. There is some hope that if he comes
clean he will be able to get off the banned list earlier (though I think I
read it won't be any time real soon no matter what he does).

I disagree a little with your premise - I think the evidence that he was
doping is very strong - strong enough to stand up in court, and does not
rely only on the testimony of co-conspirators. I think his lawyers got some
indication that they would be able to get a better deal from
various prosecuting authorities, and maybe even a walk, if he comes clean
and then names names.

I went into work this morning just to teach one class and then retreated
back to my sick-bed, but while at work I did talk a bit to a colleague who
is heavily into cycling, and used to be a HUGE Armstrong fan. Armstrong
actually vacations up in our area fairly often, and we see him occasionally
- I have had a brief chat with him myself. Anyway, this guy told me that he
very much liked the interview last night, and felt that Armstrong had taken
responsibility and was ready to move forward. That is a different view than
mine, but I think it will be typical of the core "LiveStrong" brigade, who
were finding it harder and harder to defend their loyalty to "Lance" while
he continued to obviously lie to the public; lies made uglier by the long
history of bullying and ruining people's lives. These fans will now be able
to rationalize their continued wearing of the wrist bands and t-shirts.

-- 
TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People!
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