On Monday, June 10, 2013 1:24:24 AM UTC-4, PGage wrote: > > I don't disagree with any of this, but I think it is important to > underline again that for the most part the problem with the Gallup poll was > not the crass partisanship of Rove or Morris, or even the crass marketing > of CNN and MSNBC. Gallup was committed to a particular polling model which > rested heavily on what they viewed as a proprietary likely voter screening > algorithm. This model is conservative not in the partisan sense, but in the > sense that it assumes the future will be like the past. If the partisan and > ethnic and age turnout had been similar to 2004 and before, then CNN would > have been right. The problem with their model was that it was not dynamic - > it did not account for how the composition of likely voters was changing, > and was likely to continue to change given underlying national demographics. > > What might be interesting is how this plays out in the next election, where the same problem might occur in the other direction. Is the 2008-2012 voting pattern the "new normal," or did it happen that way because Barack Obama is a unique candidate whose specific set of circumstances is unlikely to be replicated?
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