Disagree - mainly because TV executives are demo-obsessed douchebags in any 
reality. 

Assuming Conan still gets Late Night when Dave takes over Carson's show, and 
assuming Dave threw some serious support behind Conan, I still see Conan taking 
over the Tonight Show (albeit sometime around now rather than in 2009) because 
even edgy alternate reality Leno would be considered "too old" to retain the 
demo against the competition by 2014.  CBS will still have pulled the trigger 
on a late night show at some point, realizing the potential revenue from the 
daypart, possibly bringing over Arsenio's show from syndication or grabbing 
some SNL talent from NBC. (Who here wouldn't have watched "Late Show with Phil 
Hartman"?) I'm also thinking Jon Stewart still goes to TDS, although he could 
have been considered for the CBS job (or so the Larry Sanders Show would lead 
us to believe).

Of course, when Conan moves up to Tonight, someone still has to take over Late 
Night, and assuming Lorne is still Master of his Domain and the SNL landscape 
isn't too different, Fallon would still be in good position for taking that 
spot. 

Really, the guy who loses most from the "Dave gets Tonight" scenario is Craig 
Ferguson, who probably doesn't get the opportunity at 12:35 since there's no 
Snyder > Kilborne transition.  And who wins most (other then Dave)? Bob Costas, 
who is allowed to continue Later as the spiritual successor to Tom Snyder's 
Tomorrow Show.

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