The betting markets had Trump at about 25% to win the nomination before the Muslim crack got out - he dropped to 18% this morning, but will probably bounce back most of that over the next few days. Nate Silver has been arguing that the markets have been over-valuing Trump all Fall, and I continue to agree. His chances of getting the nomination may not be zero, but they are significantly less than 20% - I would put it somewhere around 10%. Bernie Sanders has a better chance of getting elected President of the United States than Donald Trump does, and I think Bernie's chances are almost unmeasurable.
If the media continues to give Trump so much free air time, it is possible that Trump will continue with his 20 to 30 percent polling numbers well into the summer. In August I thought Trump would drop out by February when it became clear he did not have the votes to win, and would have to start spending a lot of his own money, but I under estimated two things: 1. The addiction of news and entertainment television and internet sites to him, and 2. The stickiness of his core supporters, who would rather vote for him and lose than switch to a winner. This does set up a still unlikely but now plausible scenario in which Trump goes to Cleveland with enough delegates to make a mess for the Republicans, and may threaten and even carry out a third party run into the Fall. But the scenarios under which Trump actually winds up with the GOP nomination have always been few and bizarre, and are becoming increasingly so. All would require the religious fundamentalists supporting Carson and Cruz to throw in with the Know-Nothings supporting Trump against the mainstream leaders of the Party. But Trump's brand of populism is so incongruent with the fundamentalist Christian vibe that I don't see that ever happening in large numbers. And in the modern era of presidential politics, I don't think there has been a single instance of someone winning the nomination who is so opposed by the party's ruling class, and whose nomination would be so harmful to the electoral prospects of so many down-ticket party candidates. More likely than Trump winning the nomination is the Republicans forcing George H. W. Bush from his death bed to lead a mostly ceremonial campaign against Hillary and hold on to large Republican majorities in the House and Senate. His campaign slogan would actually be: "He saved us from Trump". On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 11:45 AM, Joe Hass <[email protected]> wrote: > One part political, one part media: > > In August, I wrote on Facebook: > <https://www.facebook.com/hassgocubs/posts/10153187434937648> "Unless the > GOP kicks him out, [Trump's] going to Cleveland. Book it." When I wrote > that, I thought that the GOP would kick him out just because someone would > realize how bad this could look (and this was after a couple of "Okay, > *now* Trump has gone too far"s). At this point, I am completely comfortable > in doubling down and saying unless the GOP kicks him out, Trump's their > nominee. He is, fundamentally, everything the actual followers of the party > stand for. Paul Ryan can stand up and say "That's not conservatism" (which > everyone has generously interpreted as "the public stance of the Republican > Party", since the Republican party has long since left conservatism for > whatever the hell it is), but it's worth noting that of the three remaining > candidates who are polling >=10%, not one of them has come out to say > anything that comes close to "Trump is wrong, and I do not agree with him." > > Meanwhile Buzzfeed EIC emailed his staff to clarify their social media > policy when it comes to Trump and I think one line says it all: "It is ... > entirely fair to call him a mendacious racist." > > https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedBen/status/674417675813019648 > > > On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 11:51 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Donald Trump is not going to be president of the United States, and he is >> not going to win the Republican Nomination. But as Trevor Noah pointed out >> last night, he is having a lasting impact on American culture - >> legitimating a brand of ignorant, hateful No-Nothingism that existed long >> before him, but that we had managed to make most Americans feel embarrassed >> about. Long after Trump fades from this campaign, social and political >> zombies he has unleashed will be walking among us. >> >> I recognize that Trump is ratings crack (though I have never understood >> the appeal; Trump and Dr. Phil were the two guests that would make me skip >> a Letterman show), but it is time for entertainment shows to ignore him, >> and news shows to treat him with the contempt he has earned. >> >> On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 8:56 AM, Bob Jersey <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> TheWrap >>> <http://www.thewrap.com/donald-trump-slams-time-magazine-for-person-of-the-year-snub/> >>> (link): "They picked [the] person who is ruining Germany," he tweeted about >>> winner Chancellor Angela Merkel. >>> >>> Watch him get sliced and diced. >>> >>> B >>> >>> -- >>> -- >>> TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "TV or Not TV" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> [email protected] >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en >>> --- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> >> >> -- >> -- >> TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "TV or Not TV" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected] >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en >> --- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "TVorNotTV" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > -- > -- > TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "TV or Not TV" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
