Let me preface this with the fact that he has zero chance of winning the presidency. That's not in doubt by any rational observer. And let's also assume that there are four legit candidates: Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Marco Rubio.
What is in flux at this moment is whether the decline of Ben Carson will stop in the Cruz/Rubio group or he's gone. That's huge, because if Carson and Trump make it to Cleveland, the GOP has two wildcards they have to screw around with. Four scenarios the morning of June 8: 1. Anyone not Trump has 50%+1 2. Anyone not Trump has a plurality 3. Trump has 50%+1 4. Trump has a plurality 1 makes the GOP very happy. 2 means the GOP is going to have to do some horsetrading, but at least they have Trump not in the center ring. 3 is obviously very bad for the GOP, but I think this significantly better than 4. Because you will have a lot of people who have never seen a truly split convention (discounting 76 because at least Ford had a lead going into Kansas City). And now they're going to have to deal with two very bad possibilities: Trump with the nomination after a boatload of horsetrading that leaves people even less happy or someone else with the nomination, which will lead to full-fledged GOP anarchy, because if Trump followers can't figure out that you can't expel 11 million people, they're sure not gonna believe that the guy who had the most votes didn't win. There was an article I linked to on my Facebook page earlier this week about how people have warned the GOP they were going down this road for a few years now. Now it's true, and there's no sense of joy in this because we're all now watching how it's exploded in the most sad way: with bigots suddenly launching the country back to the late 50s while the rest of us are left in fear of the inmates truly running the asylum. (I get why the headline writer chose Liberal, but it really was "anyone with a decent amount of brain"). https://newrepublic.com/article/125353/trump-proves-liberals-right-along On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 2:47 PM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > The betting markets had Trump at about 25% to win the nomination before > the Muslim crack got out - he dropped to 18% this morning, but will > probably bounce back most of that over the next few days. Nate Silver has > been arguing that the markets have been over-valuing Trump all Fall, and I > continue to agree. His chances of getting the nomination may not be zero, > but they are significantly less than 20% - I would put it somewhere around > 10%. Bernie Sanders has a better chance of getting elected President of the > United States than Donald Trump does, and I think Bernie's chances are > almost unmeasurable. > > If the media continues to give Trump so much free air time, it is possible > that Trump will continue with his 20 to 30 percent polling numbers well > into the summer. In August I thought Trump would drop out by February when > it became clear he did not have the votes to win, and would have to start > spending a lot of his own money, but I under estimated two things: 1. The > addiction of news and entertainment television and internet sites to him, > and 2. The stickiness of his core supporters, who would rather vote for him > and lose than switch to a winner. This does set up a still unlikely but now > plausible scenario in which Trump goes to Cleveland with enough delegates > to make a mess for the Republicans, and may threaten and even carry out a > third party run into the Fall. > > But the scenarios under which Trump actually winds up with the GOP > nomination have always been few and bizarre, and are becoming increasingly > so. All would require the religious fundamentalists supporting Carson and > Cruz to throw in with the Know-Nothings supporting Trump against the > mainstream leaders of the Party. But Trump's brand of populism is so > incongruent with the fundamentalist Christian vibe that I don't see that > ever happening in large numbers. And in the modern era of presidential > politics, I don't think there has been a single instance of someone winning > the nomination who is so opposed by the party's ruling class, and whose > nomination would be so harmful to the electoral prospects of so many > down-ticket party candidates. More likely than Trump winning the nomination > is the Republicans forcing George H. W. Bush from his death bed to lead a > mostly ceremonial campaign against Hillary and hold on to large Republican > majorities in the House and Senate. His campaign slogan would actually be: > "He saved us from Trump". > > > > On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 11:45 AM, Joe Hass <[email protected]> wrote: > >> One part political, one part media: >> >> In August, I wrote on Facebook: >> <https://www.facebook.com/hassgocubs/posts/10153187434937648> "Unless >> the GOP kicks him out, [Trump's] going to Cleveland. Book it." When I wrote >> that, I thought that the GOP would kick him out just because someone would >> realize how bad this could look (and this was after a couple of "Okay, >> *now* Trump has gone too far"s). At this point, I am completely comfortable >> in doubling down and saying unless the GOP kicks him out, Trump's their >> nominee. He is, fundamentally, everything the actual followers of the party >> stand for. Paul Ryan can stand up and say "That's not conservatism" (which >> everyone has generously interpreted as "the public stance of the Republican >> Party", since the Republican party has long since left conservatism for >> whatever the hell it is), but it's worth noting that of the three remaining >> candidates who are polling >=10%, not one of them has come out to say >> anything that comes close to "Trump is wrong, and I do not agree with him." >> >> Meanwhile Buzzfeed EIC emailed his staff to clarify their social media >> policy when it comes to Trump and I think one line says it all: "It is ... >> entirely fair to call him a mendacious racist." >> >> https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedBen/status/674417675813019648 >> >> >> On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 11:51 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Donald Trump is not going to be president of the United States, and he >>> is not going to win the Republican Nomination. But as Trevor Noah pointed >>> out last night, he is having a lasting impact on American culture - >>> legitimating a brand of ignorant, hateful No-Nothingism that existed long >>> before him, but that we had managed to make most Americans feel embarrassed >>> about. Long after Trump fades from this campaign, social and political >>> zombies he has unleashed will be walking among us. >>> >>> I recognize that Trump is ratings crack (though I have never understood >>> the appeal; Trump and Dr. Phil were the two guests that would make me skip >>> a Letterman show), but it is time for entertainment shows to ignore him, >>> and news shows to treat him with the contempt he has earned. >>> >>> On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 8:56 AM, Bob Jersey <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> TheWrap >>>> <http://www.thewrap.com/donald-trump-slams-time-magazine-for-person-of-the-year-snub/> >>>> (link): "They picked [the] person who is ruining Germany," he tweeted about >>>> winner Chancellor Angela Merkel. >>>> >>>> Watch him get sliced and diced. >>>> >>>> B >>>> >>>> -- >>>> -- >>>> TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "TV or Not TV" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> [email protected] >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en >>>> --- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>>> an email to [email protected]. >>>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>>> >>> >>> -- >>> -- >>> TV or Not TV .... 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The Smartest (TV) People! >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "TV or Not TV" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected] >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en >> --- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "TVorNotTV" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > -- > -- > TV or Not TV .... 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