Re: Hume, induction, and probability

[Ronald E. Parr]

KBL said:

>Bayes theorem is not circular reasoning.
>
>As I said, I'm not trying to establish DEDUCTIVELY that ours is a complex
>but learnable universe.  I'm arguing that it's a perfectly respectable
>INDUCTIVE inference from the observations all of us have.  I give it a
>pretty high probability, but not unity!

When you apply Bayes rule, you are assuming that future outcomes will be
drawn from the same distribution as past outcomes, i.e. you are assuming
that induction works.  Therefore, you cannot use Bayes rule to justify
induction without falling into the trap of circular reasoning.

More generally, Bayes rule is not an escape from the requirement that we
reason non-circularly.  If you construct a hypothesis that is
self-reinforcing, then you have constructed template which can be used to
justify anything.


-- 
Ron Parr                                       email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]   
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