Peter Szolovits wrote:
If TWC is really calibrated, then your conditions 5 and 6 are false, no?

I agree with Peter's solution. If I build a model for this problem, it must contain at least two variables: Snow and TWC_report. According with my model, the TWC forecasts are calibrated if and only if P(Snow=yes|TWC_report=x) = x, by definition of calibration.

Regards,
  Javier

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Francisco Javier Diez              Phone: (+34) 91.398.71.61
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