Museveni `Woos' Awori;
Kategaya, Others Jump
From The
Monitor, Dec. 15, 2000
By Charles Onyango-Obbo
First it was the chairman of the Parliamentary Movement
Caucus, MP Gilbert Bukenya, who some weeks ago said
parties, whose activities are banned, should be freed. Because the mark of a
true movementist is her/his hostility to multi-party
politics and parties, Bukenya's statements were
significant, as he had just been nominated minister a few days before. He would
not have risked making those statements unless he knew they were safe. It seems
Bukenya had been tasked by the "powers
above" to make those statements. It was speculated by some observers that Bukenya was, beside using the
comment as a placebo for donors who are reported to be finally getting restless
with the continued muzzling of parties ahead of next year's presidential
elections, also preparing the ground for the forthcoming Movement Convention.
Then last weekend, First Deputy Premier and minister of
Foreign Affairs, Eriya Kategaya,
said in an interview with Sunday Vision that times were changing, and the
country should prepare for a return to multi-party politics after Elections
2000 which shall be held under the "no-party"/Movement politics.
Kategaya, a long-time Museveni
associate and confidant until recent years, announced just over a month ago
that he was retiring from politics, in remarks that were widely seen as a
statement to the president and other Movement leaders that they too should pack
their bags. Kategaya generally avoids public
confrontation, least of all with Museveni.
Political insiders say Museveni
doesn't see him as a threat; either because he knows Kategaya
will never make a clean break with him and will always seek his patronage when
he is in trouble, or as his critics sometimes allege, the president thinks Kategaya is "too lazy" to apply himself to plots
against him.
Therefore when Kategaya showed
pluck and announced his intention to retire from politics, the people at State
House seemed to have been surprised and sat up to listen.
Thereafter, when the highly regarded Attorney General
Bart Katureebe also announced that he was retiring,
the president and some of his close handlers are reported to have been even
more troubled because they thought the beginnings of an exodus was in the
making. Word has it that grassroots Movement workers were beginning to panic,
seeing in Kategaya's and Katureebe's
planned retirement, signs that the Movement ship was sinking and the smart
fellows were bolting for the exit before it got jammed.
Informed sources allege that the president button-holed Katureebe, and asked him to "do a Besigye",
i.e. write a letter "regretting" his announcement, and explaining
that he was still on the team. Because Katureebe is
seen as being easily the cleanest minister, and for a government whose
reputation has been seriously damaged by corruption, his departure will
obviously be a loss. It's alleged Katureebe
insisted that he wanted out, and back into a quiet life in his legal practice.
These events coming against the dramatic announcement end
of October by former National Political Commissar and minister, Col. (rtd) Dr
Kizza Besigye, that he was
going to stand for the presidency in 2001 under the Movement ticket, and the
interest his candidature has generated, are proof that the political landscape
in Uganda has changed significantly.
President Museveni is still powerful, but his control
is slipping, and his moral authority has been undermined by scandals in his
government over the period of his record 15 years in power, and the fiasco that
Uganda's intervention in the Democratic
Republic of Congo has become.
The options open to President Museveni
today are two: Either crackdown or reinvent himself and regain the political
initiative by initiating reforms.
There are some signs about which road Museveni
is planning to take, although until he does so one can't be certain.
First, there were the remarks by Bukenya,
who is known to have enjoyed unprecedented access to the president as Movement
Caucus chairman. Then there were the reshuffles in the UPDF over the weekend
that saw Lt. Col. Noble Mayombo become acting head of
the Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI), and the promotion and
assignment of the previous CMI chief Brig. Henry Tumukunde
to the north, a complex command which has ruined the careers of better
officers.
While some officers criticise Mayombo as a "schemer" he is among the brightest
minds in the military, and within the army context is seen as more liberal than
Brig. Tumukunde who was viewed widely as a
hard-liner. These changes are likely to affect the posture of Military
Intelligence, which plays a crucial role in elections, and therefore shape the
atmosphere surrounding Election 2001.
Then over last weekend, Museveni
visited the capital of Samia, Busia.
There had been speculation that he would attack local favourite,
the maverick Samia Bugwe North
MP Aggrey Awori, who has
announced that he is standing for president and is reported to be widely
popular in many parts of the east. Instead, he urged the local people not to decampaign Awori as "a
Kenyan" because, like all people who live at borders that were drawn up
arbitrarily by colonialists, it is common for them to have families on both
sides of the divide.
To pre-empt another round of mudslinging against him as a
"Munyarwanda", Museveni
said he too had been a victim of the same type of attacks.
However, in a sign that Museveni
is getting dangerously out of touch and has forgotten his old winning ways, he
visited Busia on the day of the burial of Eng.
Mathias Mangen, who was one of the most prestigious Samia figures of his age. Apart from minister of State for
Finance Gabriel Opio and the RDC, there weren't any
other figures of note with the president. Every Samia
had come from Kampala, Entebbe, Jinja
and from across in Kenya to Butangasi
for the funeral.
If Museveni had just dropped by
on the funeral and left the widow with Shs 1m in mabugo, he would have wrapped up every Samia
vote, including possibly Awori's. Instead, he blew
it.
Nevertheless, the soft line on Awori
was revealing. Awori, even though he has toyed with
setting up his own party, is still a UPC man. The UPC has again officially
boycotted next year's presidential and parliamentary elections. However a section of the party, including the sprinkling of members in
Parliament, have decided to participate. During the parliamentary elections
in 1996, and the June 2000 referendum, some of these UPCs
and the handful of multi-partyists who participated
helped legitimise Museveni
by offering opposition, albeit weak, but opposition all the same, in these
contests. Unless their participation is rewarded with some concessions, Museveni will give ammunition to the opposition extremists
who advocate armed rebellion as the only language he understands.
For this reason, it's thought
something will be given to the multi-party opposition. There are indications
that the partyists have agreed with minister of
Justice Mayanja Nkangi on some offerings to be made
in the Political Organisations Bill. Among these,
parties might be allowed to open district, but not lower branches.
These openings will give the parties enough room for more
of their rank and file to feel that its worthwhile to
come out and put forward their own presidential candidate. If they feel they
can win, hunger for power will take over, and they therefore will be less
likely to pick a joint multi-party candidate. Indeed talks to have one
candidate that has been going on in recent months have failed to reach
agreement.
On the other hand, if the parties are not given enough
breathing space, most of their voters will most probably rally around the man
who is seen as the most likely to beat Museveni - Besigye.
The easiest way to defeat Besigye
and the parties, therefore, is in easing restrictions. Besides, it's also the
small window that embarrassed donors are waiting to open, so that the money can
flow again.
©2000 Charles Onyango-Obbo
& Worldwide EP. All rights reserved.
