How Mbeki Declined Backing Obasanjo's Third Term Bid
Laolu Akande New-York
Exclusive report
Sunday, April 17, 2005
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article07
After President Olusegun Obasanjo openly stated that he is under pressure to run for a third term amid rumors speculating on such plans, more details are beginning to emerge on the international dimensions of the move.
Diplomatic sources have disclosed to The Guardian on Sunday that Obasanjo had sought the understanding of the South African President Thabo Mbeki in case he has to stay in power for some more time in order to successfully complete his reform agenda. The sources, some of whom are very close to Mbeki, explained that Mbeki had hinted back to Obasanjo that such a move would be contrary to the spirit of good governance which both of them have been championing.
It was revealed that Mbeki had played a critical role in 2003, when formidable forces in the PDP, including a good number of PDP Governors had planned to ensure that Obasanjo was not nominated for a second term. Mbeki as the diplomats recalled to The Guardian had met several of the PDP Governors and other critical political forces in the country including former military president Ibrahim Babangida and urged them to support Obasanjo for a second term.
According to the diplomats, Mbeki had argued that it would be a disgrace for Obasanjo-a leading African leader at the forefront of efforts to reshape Africa and inspire international confidence-not to be nominated by his party for reelection when he is known to be interested in a second term.
Although it was not clear how much of Mbeki's persuasion swayed support for Obasanjo who was eventually nominated by his party, but the sources said Mbeki came thought as a friendly international backer for Obasanjo going up to the 2003 election.
The diplomats, some of which were aware of the meetings Mbeki held with some of the Nigerian politicians, and other who said Mbeki narrated the events to them personally disclosed that many of the politicians that Mbeki spoke with including IBB, had warned him that he-Mbeki-knew so little about Obasanjo. But Mbeki had asked that Obasanjo be given a benefit of the doubt.
This was why according to the diplomats that Mbeki himself was surprised that Obasanjo even considered and encouraged certain elements who wanted him to take a third term. Mbeki was said to have categorically informed Obasanjo that he could not possibly support such a move to back Obasanjo for a third term.
Speaking last month in Berlin, Germany, Obasanjo himself revealed that he is indeed under pressure to run for a third term. Although the president did not reveal the names of those mounting the pressure he did say he was not interested. Obasanjo had been invited by members of the German-African Association to deliver a lecture on: �Nigeria: A strong emerging economy�? In the question and answer session, President Obasanjo confirmed rife speculations about a third term ambition.
Said Obasanjo: �They keep worrying me, maybe you should stay a little longer...But I believe our transition will not be complete without transiting from government to government and from one personality to another�?
But diplomats warned that it is in line with Obasanjo's public service record that he is always succumbing to external pressure to serve, just like he did when he took over power from Murtala and when he agreed to stand election for presidency in 1999 after he had publicly stated that he was not interested.
The Guardian was told that one of the reasons driving a third term for Obasanjo is the feeling among his closest advisers that his first term may indeed have been completely wasted in terms of confronting the major issues facing the country, especially the reform agenda. Obasanjo is said to be of the view that it is now that his quest to reform and halt the slide in the nation, is beginning to gather momentum and to sustain such a momentum more time would be needed lest the zeal is quenched by a new regime that would not share the same agenda.
But Mbeki's refusal so far to play along is said to be a major setback, even though a tougher hurdle is said to await Obasanjo regarding the attitude of other leading nations like the US, UK and the European Union. A State Dept source had once explained to The Guardian that the US was still awaiting the transfer of power from one particular president to another before Nigeria can be really considered as a stable civilian regime. And until Obasanjo successfully hands over to another president, Nigeria would still be considered to be engaged in a long transition.
Diplomats added that if Obasanjo continues in a third term, internationally, it may signal another red flag at a time when good governance is being demanded by the international community, especially international donors and Africa's development partners.
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