Somalia: Up to 12 Countries Could Be Sucked Into Conflict
(Page 2 of 3) The report says that Kenya's role as an "honest broker" to peace negotiations could have been damaged by its leadership of the Igad initiative to send in troops to the troubled country. Although Kenya's Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju recently said Kenya is not willing to support any side, this is treated with suspicion by the Islamists, because the country had earlier pledged support for the Transitional Government. But, just like Ethiopia, Kenya's keenness to participate "could have been driven by fears that the Islamic Courts intend to pursue incorporation of Somali-inhabited territory in the country's northeastern region."
Seemingly, Djibouti - a predominantly Muslim Somali country - is not as hard pressed to play a key role as Kenya and
Ethiopia. It has also not taken a clear-cut position on what side to support.
The report says Djibouti not only acknowledged last December having provided the Transitional Government with 3,000 military uniforms but had also formally received a senior Islamic Courts delegation in September this year.
Further, Prof Shinn reports that Djibouti's heavy dependence on Arab investment "may account for its greater willingness to accept the Islamic Courts."
Away from Somalia's international borders, Uganda, Sudan and Eritrea are also playing different roles in the conflict.
The conflict seems to be a new-found preoccupation for President Yoweri Museveni's government, which had earlier not shown any interest in Somalia.
The report says Uganda "is the only country so far to offer troops for a proposed regional peacekeeping force." The
country's parliament has pledged 1,000 troops.
On the surface, Sudan seems to be more engaged in peacekeeping efforts. The report says Khartoum has retained its representatives in Somalia ever since the disastrous UN intervention in 1993.
But Khartoum is bent on expanding its role, especially now that President Omar el Bashir is heading the Arab League and is therefore in charge of a peace negotiation initiative brokered by the League.
"Eritrea," says the report, "is playing one of the strangest games in Somalia." The country was named by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia as having shipped arms to both the Islamic Courts and the Ogaden Front.
"All the country is doing," says the report, "is to take a course of action that it deems might hurt its arch-enemy, Ethiopia. Asmara will take just about any action to harm Ethiopia." The report says Asmara's support
for the Islamists is its way of putting additional pressure on Addis Ababa, with which it has a long-running border dispute.
Although they are accused by Mr Gedi of having supplied arms to terrorists in Somalia, Egypt and Libya could be playing a more "background" and indirect role in the conflict.
The report says Egypt's role has more to do with maintaining its overwhelming use of the Nile waters than anything else.
The country is said to have maintained a relationship with Somalia since the 19th century as a means of "periodically" putting pressure on, or weakening Ethiopia, which is reportedly unhappy over Egypt and Sudan's use of virtually 100 per cent of the Nile waters.
Libya's role has something to do with its regional adventurism and newly-discovered interest in championing the creation of a Pan-African state. "Libya seems to engage in controversial
issues just because it does not want to be left out."
In an apparent attempt to broker peace, President Muammar Gadaffi is said to have invited the Islamists and transitional government early last month of the 7th anniversary to the establishment of the African Union.
Outside the continent, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the US have also taken sides in the conflict.
Yemen, which has up to 84,000 registered Somali refugees, was named by the UN as having sent 15 pick-up trucks and military clothing to the Transitional Government in January.
The US has also accused Yemen of supplying the Islamists with cash, a charge the country's foreign ministry has denied.
Officially, Saudi Arabia is not supplying arms or cash to the warring parties in Somalia.
But the report says there are suspicions that though it stopped financing Somali Islamic charities after the US linked them to terrorism, some Saudis "continue to support fundamentalist activity in the country."
The Saudi government is also named by the UN Monitoring Team as having provided the Transitional Government with military uniforms last December.
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