After several rounds of crawling around the back of the space under the desk, dis-connecting one desktop and connecting another desktop, looking at this and that, doing some math, and whatever else, here's what I come up with.  I limited my attention to /boot and its sub-directories.  I use "kernel" loosely, in a general way.

> the current "kernel" is about 100 MB (initramfs* + config* + System.map + vmlinuz* + others)
> the "rescue" is about twice the size of the current "kernel".
> total space needed to start...
   = current + 5 old + "rescue" = 6 * current + 2 * current
   = 8 * the current "kernel"
   = 800 MB.
> the "kernel" grows about 20% per year.

Wanting to keep 5 old "kernels", and wanting /boot to accommodate 10 years of growth, /boot should be allotted
 (1 + (growth rate as a percent / 100) ^ years) * starting size
 = (1.2 ^ 10) * 800 MB
 = about 5 GB.

I'm still waiting for hardware shipments to arrive.

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