I remain skeptical on a number of fronts. For a start television, at least in the past, was just the perfect medium for advertising. Mass audiences, in a state where they are likely to absorb the message, have their attention focussed on your ad, and where avoiding the advert required at least some effort.
Now this is changing because of PVR's and tv on demand/iptv set-top boxes, and of course the internet. But that doesnt mean that the internet will be as friendly or desirable to advertisers. The more it starts to resemble TV, eg mass audiences and lots of safe, controlled, professional content, the more the existing advertising business with its billions of $ will be interested, and will switch over. Now thats where I assume many of the $ we see on these charts that predict future internet ad spend, will come from, if it comes at all. And that may happen, but its certainly not the world im interested in. Its still msotly the same players, its really TV on the internet and it turns out that doesnt actually offer me much more than TV by radiowaves, cable, satellite. I guess I just expect that if most of the viewers & cash go to the internet, all the existing producers of TV shows will go to the internet, although I suspect that whatever the technology, really huge audiences are a thing of the past because there is always so much more choice to fragment the audience. On a wider level I think humans, society & economy have exceeded their own limitations when it comes to scale. Many of the different challenges that humans face over the coming century will be about scale. We've achieved many things that would not be possible if it were not for the absurd scale they have been conducted on, largely powered by the industrial revolution and its fossil fuels. But it doesnt look like its sustainable unless the sci-fi mineral mining multi-planet humanity becomes a reality at some point. So maybe the solutions are all small, local, primitive compared to todays giddy heights, but sustainable and less of a house of cards. Bug numbers are so cool and sexy right now, maybe there will come a time when down becomes the new up, and I wonder if this is where future economic realities may meet long-tail concepts. Until then theres insane profit to be made by those that can ride the bohemoth, so I doubt it will happen till its unavoidable. Cheers Steve Elbows --- In [email protected], "Frank Sinton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > The shift will be faster than people think b/c of the demographics of online > video (the coveted 18-34 year-old crowd). It is common sense really - when > was the last time you heard a 20-something year-old talk about a TV show? > The buzz and chatter is all about online video, social networks, etc.. > > > > On a related note, the LonelyGirl announcement today was huge for indie > video producers. I know it is a "hit", but regardless, it signals a shift > b/c it appears that LG licensed their content to MySpaceTV w/out having to > sign an exclusive or hand over creative control. Big shift for old media > player Fox (although sometimes the devil is in the details, so it is hard to > say how good of a deal it actually was). > > > > -Frank > > > > Frank Sinton > > CEO > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > http://mefeedia.com/user/franks/ > > > > http://mefeedia.com - Discover, Collect, and Share video blogs > > _____ > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > On Behalf Of Chuck > Sent: Thursday, August 02, 2007 10:29 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: [videoblogging] Re: the ugly truth about online video > > > > This made me recall what Bill Gates said back in January: > > http://newteevee. <http://newteevee.com/2007/01/29/gates-tv-is-doomed/> > com/2007/01/29/gates-tv-is-doomed/ > > Ad dollars to video is not going to change from TV overnight, but there > WILL be a change over time and a significant one at that. > > Chuck > > --- In videoblogging@ <mailto:videoblogging%40yahoogroups.com> > yahoogroups.com, "caminofilm" <caminofilm@> > wrote: > > > > interesting article about predictions for online video advertising > > > > http://mediabiz. > <http://mediabiz.blogs.cnnmoney.com/2007/07/27/the-ugly-truth-about-> > blogs.cnnmoney.com/2007/07/27/the-ugly-truth-about- > online-video/ > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >
