Posted by Jim Lindgren: How did the pollsters do in predicting the popular vote? http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1225926066
The popular vote totals are not final. On Wednesday afternoon, the margin was 6.2% and rising. The pollsters who nailed it by reporting 6-7% included Rasmussen Reports, Pew Research, FOX News, Ipsos/McClatchy, CNN/Opinion Research, and the poll aggregator 538. The worst performers were Gallup and Zogby with an 11% spread, Battleground with a 3.5% average of its two models and Marist, CBS News, and ABC News/Wash Post a 9% spread. Interestingly, CNN and Fox News both outperformed the oldline networks � ABC, CBS, and NBC. Predicted Spread Poll 2-5 Battleground (combined models) 5 Diageo/Hotline 6 Rasmussen Reports 6 Pew Research 7 FOX News 7 Ipsos/McClatchy 7 CNN/Opinion Research 8 IBD/TIPP 8 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9 Marist 9 CBS News 9 ABC News/Wash Post 11 Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11 Gallup Overall, the polls did pretty well this year. In aggregating them, one would have done fairly well by throwing out the most Democratic poll among every 4 polls.
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